Sunday 26 March 2017

Brendan Keenan: Forecasts, predictions and models drive us to distraction

Are we any wiser after the latest plethora of reports?

LEMME tell you about my week. Two ESRI reports, one IMF report, one Central Bank report and a stress test. And I'm not talking about the banks.

A few ordinary citizens even noticed that there seemed to be an awful lot of this stuff flying around. Perhaps they are all clearing their desks for the August holidays? But are we any the wiser after all that analysis?

Perhaps not, but we may have learnt something about economic forecasting, and perhaps blogging. There was that little frisson when Nobel laureate -- and extremely famous economist -- Paul Krugman poured scorn on the ESRI's updated medium-term recovery scenarios for the economy.

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