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Analysis

While the world dithers, Iran is getting closer to a nuclear bomb

A student explains his invention to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (on left) during the National Festival of Innovation and Prosperity in Tehran yesterday

A student explains his invention to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (on left) during the National Festival of Innovation and Prosperity in Tehran yesterday

By Bronwen Maddox

Tuesday February 09 2010

THE attempt to talk Iran down from its nuclear ambitions is going badly. Yesterday, Tehran formally told the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog, that it would move further ahead with its uranium-enrichment programme. This will take it one big step closer to a nuclear-weapons capability.

Its latest move contradicts a statement from the regime last week in which it appeared to be ready for a deal. In fact, it is now clear that it was just the latest in a long series of such feints.

The parallel front of diplomacy is also faring poorly. The six countries involved in talks to dissuade Iran from its present course -- the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China -- so far haven't even agreed to take the matter to the UN Security Council.

This lack of agreement is due to China's reluctance to back new sanctions against one of its main trading partners, as well as the frosty state of relations between China and the US.

Beijing might, if pressed, express outright opposition to such talks, the US fears, although some French officials are more hopeful that a deal might be done. But not quickly.

Nor is the European Union likely to put together its own sanctions. Instead, it is more likely that the US will repeat its past success in going alone.

Britain called on Iran yesterday to move away from "contradictory rhetoric" -- a polite phrase for the stalling and lying that has characterised Iran's recent statements.

On Sunday, Iran declared its intention to enrich uranium to 20pc, which is a significant step towards converting the material from the level required for reactor fuel towards that needed for weapons.

Iran claims that it would use this enriched uranium in the Tehran research reactor.

However, this makes no sense because it lacks the technology to convert the material into fuel rods. The move merely adds to suspicions that it has no plausible civilian purpose for central aspects of its programme.

The one strand of hope comes from the persistence of the Iranian opposition after the fraudulent election, despite the execution of some of those who took part. Further protests are planned for this week.

NO ONE can safely assume that a new government would necessarily jettison Iran's nuclear work but it might be more willing to talk. That is why, in trying to design new sanctions, effort is rightly being expended on trying to shield ordinary Iranians from the worst effects.

In the end, however, that will be impossible, if the sanctions are to bite.

The sanctions track is not dead but it is moving painfully slowly. Iran's statements are wild and contradictory; the response from diplomacy needs to be steady and plausible. At the moment, it is neither. (© The Times, London)

- Bronwen Maddox

Irish Independent

 
 

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