Unpopular Taoiseach is dragging party down
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GEORGE Bush is heading out of office -- and Brian Cowen risks assuming his muddied mantle as the most unwanted, the most scorned, the most unpopular of them all.
A devastating new set of survey figures today proves that an earlier apocalyptic vision was no rogue poll, and establishes beyond doubt that the Offalyman is the lowliest regarded Taoiseach since records began.
Mr Cowen's personal rating among the public has almost halved since taking office -- a calamitous collapse that leaves him less highly respected than all other party leaders.
And the chastening news for Fianna Fail is that the Taoiseach is dragging down his party rating, with FF confirmed at its lowest ebb since its foundation.
Dev's old party, once a towering monolith dominating the Irish political landscape, is now being simply abandoned in droves by its former adherents.
The hard facts in today's 'Irish Times' poll, confirming the cold earlier arithmetic of a Red C poll for the 'Sunday Business Post', shows the Cowen leadership has thus far spectacularly failed to catch on or communicate with the electorate -- a fact first made clear by the Lisbon treaty referendum.
On this showing, Fianna Fail is heading for electoral disaster at next year's local and European elections, and -- more distantly -- a new Lisbon treaty will prove harder to sell than snow to the Eskimos.
The chill of a 27pc poll rating will send a shiver down the spine of the backbenchers likely to be devastated in a general election if their figures stay rooted in the political wilderness. Those backbenchers will now be imbued with a sense of "sauve qui peut" -- or every man for himself -- particularly when the poll shows that Independents have virtually doubled in popularity to 13pc.
Losing the FF party whip might therefore become something devoutly to be wished with envious eyes cast today in the direction of Joe Behan and Jim McDaid, late of the unpopular party.
Backbenchers
The Government is already having trouble governing its own backbenchers, let alone the nation. And events this week would already appear to have hastened the day when the FF/Green administration will have to go to the country.
Poor management across a range of headings have materially altered the Coalition's chances of surviving to the end of its allotted five-year term. Enda Kenny would certainly seem to think so -- he now expects to become Taoiseach "soon," he says, whereas the grouchy incumbent of that office dismisses him sourly as a cock crowing on his own dunghill.
But it is the Government that has found itself in mire of its making -- and which has seen its parliamentary majority significantly frittered away since the summer break.
The departure of Dr Jim McDaid on the issue of the botched withdrawal of a promised vaccination programme against cervical cancer has made the Government even less stable than after the Budget.
Since Brian Cowen became Taoiseach, he has lost no newer than four TDs, although the haemorrhage began through the sad death of Seamus Brennan. More recently, however, three TDs have drifted away from the Government benches, all of them as a result of crude policy initiatives that offended the consciences of the members concerned.
To paraphrase Lady Bracknell from 'The Importance of Being Earnest' -- to lose one backbencher may be considered unfortunate; but to lose two would appear to have the stamp of carelessness. Dropping three might legitimately be ascribed to blinkered bloodymindedness.
The first to go was Joe Behan, a new TD for Wicklow, who was not prepared to support the withdrawal of automatic medical cards from the elderly. Next overboard was Finian McGrath, the Dublin North Central Independent who had thrown in his lot with the Government for a constituency package from Bertie Ahern.
And so to this week's loss of the party whip for Dr James McDaid for abstaining on an Opposition motion attacking the withdrawal of an inoculation programme for young girls.
McDaid declared a week ago that the decision to scrap the free provision of a vaccine was "passing a death sentence on a certain proportion of these 12-year-olds".
Instead of having a majority of 12, the Government majority in the House has now shrunk to six -- 85 votes to a maximum of 79 for the combined Opposition. And that means Mr Cowen can't afford to lose any by-elections or any more backbenchers and Independents.
- Senan Molony
