Taoiseach finally finds a new sense of purpose
If Brian Cowen retreats back into his shell he will be doomed, but if he forges ahead, he has a chance writes Jody Corcoran
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BRIAN Cowen scrambled on to a trailer in Tullamore last May to deliver a speech long on aspiration, as his unscripted speeches usually are. It was a Saturday afternoon. The sunshine was warm and soft. People luxuriated in his aura, listening, but not really hearing.
The new Taoiseach spoke in broad terms, emphasising the themes of his leadership: patriotism and community. He referred only once to the economy, which was already in freefall, although few seemed to know it.
Cowen had a go at the media or the "commentariat" as he said. He urged people to ignore them. He vowed that he would not be found wanting when it came to making the "necessary adjustments".
The implication, wilfully given, was that, with a tweak here and there, everything would be fine.
The fundamentals were sound, after all. It now seems likely that he actually believed that at the time. However, the Taoiseach then spent months hiding in full sight, being found wanting, making a tweak here and there, while the economy worsened to the point of implosion.
Last week, he finally made the "necessary adjustments". They did not go far enough, but they were a start. By waiting so long, though, he must spend the rest of his tenure, however long that may be, trying to catch up.
On Thursday, nine months after Tullamore, Cowen delivered another impromptu speech, to business people in Dublin. Again, it was aspirational, but there was a new reality to it also.
He left his notes aside, he said, so that he could look his audience in the eye. He wanted to spell out the situation to them. When he had finished, after 17 minutes, business men and women stood in ovation.
His speech was delivered to the wrong audience. It was recorded only by chance. It should have been to the public sector unions who, unbelievably, have still not accepted or are selfishly ignoring the new reality.
The business people present on Thursday did not need it spelt out. They know it already. It is more likely they rose to their feet in relief that the Taoiseach had, at last, shown that he had finally grasped the enormity of what has befallen us, and what awaits us still.
The reaction to Cowen's speech has been extraordinary. The media, RTE in particular, seeking their own Obama, have fallen over themselves in eulogy. The Taoi- seach's message is being reported like this: 'If we all pull together, we will come through this', which is, in fact, more of the aspiration Cowen would do well to get away from now.
We may come through this, but there is no knowing yet in what form. Everything will change, is changing, before our eyes. Unemployment is heading for 500,000 at least. We are falling down a long, black hole, the bottom not even in sight.
The new reality in Cowen's message was effectively this: 'The good times are over, not just for this generation, but for the next, and they will never come back, not as we have known it.'
It could be another 10 years, therefore, before we return to some semblance of normality, by which time, for example, my son, who starts secondary school in September, will be finished college.
Cowen has made mistakes, and he has been punished hard for them. He is the most unpopular Taoiseach ever, Fianna Fail languishes behind Fine Gael in the polls.
But he seems imbued with a new sense of purpose, with a fresh sense of urgency. Perhaps it is that he has been liberated by making a decision, moving on without the social partners. If Cowen can sustain this renewal -- and it is not certain that he can -- then he may be back in the game. How long he stays there will depend on what he does next.
He will be doomed if he retreats into his shell; if he forges ahead now, he has something of a chance.
Cowen's message on Thursday night was that the country has changed forever. If that is true, it is equally so of the political landscape.
Some of the old certainties are no longer certain; yet, in a way, the more it changes, the more it stays the same.
The next general election is not due until 2012, just over three years away, but it could just as easily be three months away. To prevent an accidental election Fianna Fail must find its discipline. Over the next two weeks, its TDs will come under pressure from workers in the public sector.
If the Government reverses at all on what it announced last week then the election will come sooner rather than later. But that is the easy part.
Unemployment will rise to 400,000 before summer, and close to 500,000 by the end of the year. The difficult part for Fianna Fail will be holding its nerve when this happens. Tax increases, new taxes and fresh cutbacks are also on the way next year.
The elections in June will be a test of where Cowen is at -- of just how low he and Fianna Fail have fallen. But the Lisbon Treaty referendum in autumn will be a more searching test.
If Cowen makes it that far, which I reckon he will, and if he wins Lisbon, which I suspect he will, then he will probably make it into the new year, when he will have to do it all over again, only more so.
Eventually he will stumble towards his date with destiny, a general election, more likely than not before 2012, probably in 2010 or early 2011, by which time he will be imposing real cuts across the board.
The elections this June will be as much a referendum on Enda Kenny. Fine Gael will expect to reap a harvest irrespective of how many councillors and MEPs it has at present. A solicitor friend recently told me that he met Enda Kenny for the first time at a Law Society dinner last month. He told of how Kenny got down on a knee to kiss the hand of a woman to whom he was introduced, "gibbering like a schoolboy".
"That's Enda Kenny, isn't it," he said.Kenny has done magnificently well to lead Fine Gael into contention. But somewhere, in the psyche, the electorate is still uncomfortable with him and unconvinced that he would do any better than Cowen. If Fine Gael fails to perform at the local level then Kenny could be gone before the Taoiseach. He will be replaced by Richard Bruton, who is enjoying a remarkably good press.
But he has never shown any leadership ambition or potential. Much as I like him, I suspect, when it comes down to it, he has a glass jaw. Cowen's greatest fortune, therefore, could be the generation gap in Fine Gael.
The more things change, the more they stay the same: the next Government could be Fine Gael/Labour, but more than likely it will be Fianna Fail/Labour.
The next election could be at any moment, but more than likely it will be in two years.
It is probably irrelevant anyway. Because when the musical chairs are eventually filled, we will still be a long way from recovery, and living very different lives than those we live now.
Brendan O'Connor, Page 27
- Jody Corcoran
