Our way of life is running on empty
Sunday March 19 2006
Conventional wisdom says we've got 30 years before this happens, so why does a growing group of petroleum experts believe that it's coming in three years or fewer? Are they just scaremongers or have the rest of us been asleep at the wheel?
In just a century we have allowed our lives to become totally dependent on cheap oil. Ninety per cent of our transport systems are run on oil. At present, we use three barrels of oil for every one we find. The last year in which we discovered more oil than we consumed was in 1981. It takes, on average, six barrels of oil to bring a cow to market, from birth to slaughter, and yet who among us stops to think that fossil fuels are a finite source and cannot be replaced? According to a growing group of experts and oil men, the life blood of ourmodern world is steadily pouring away.
Dr Colin Campbell is founder and chairman of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and lives in Co Cork. He has spent most of his life on the front line of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief geologist for Amoco, a vice-president of Fina, and has worked for BP, Texaco, Shell, Chevron/Texaco and Exxon in a dozen different countries. "The oil won't run out for very many years," the Oxford PhD says. "However, the issue is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of the global peak in production. Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their inevitable decline will change the world in radical and unpredictable ways."
If what Dr Campbell says is correct, global oil production can be expected to begin to decline at about 2-3 per cent a year within the next two years, and as it does, the cost of everything else will rise. And will our little island off the west coast of Europe have much chance of getting what it needs in a hungry global market? It's not likely.
So the question is not, when will we run out of oil? The question is when will global demand simply exceed the available supplies, and why should you care?
When most of us think about oil, we tend to think first about heating oil and about the petrol and diesel fuels that keep our cars and trucks on the road. What most of us don't realise, however, is that oil does more than just fuel our vehicles and keep us warm in winter: it has become the foundation upon which our entire way of life hasbeen built.
Here's an example: agribusiness is totally dependent on the use of large machines and on artificial fertilisers and artificial pesticides in order to grow, harvest and transport the vast quantities of grain, fruit and vegetables that we enjoy every day. These days, much of our food travels an average of 1,200 to 1,500 miles before it gets to our tables - so at present we need those large machines on the road in order to ensure that our supermarket shelves remain full. Not just that,but fertilisers and pesticides also require oil and natural gas, not only for their distribution but in their manufacture as well.
To add to that, the feed for beef and poultry is heavily dependent on these same fertilisers and pesticides for its production, and, of course, on oil for its distribution. And we haven't even touched on how reliant we are on plastic, another oil by-product.
So when cheap sources of oil and gas are no longer readily available, what will happen? The chemical industry will have to pass the increased costs on to agriculture, and the increased prices for fertilisers and pesticides then result in increased food prices for the rest of us.
Like all of us, I value the freedom that my car brings, and my warm house in winter. Let's hope we can continue to enjoy these luxuries. But one thing's for sure: whether I get to keep them or not, something has to give, because there will be no single replacement for petroleum and for everything we use that is derived from it or dependent on it - no easy, simple switch from the old to the new.
Ireland is the seventh most oil-dependent country in the world. And we are 98 per cent dependent on imported fossil fuels for our energy supplies.
However, thanks to our location at the edge of the Atlantic, we are also in the fortunate position of having more green energy potential than the rest of Europe. Ireland is actually rich in potential wave, wind and solar energy. In fact, if these resources were properly harnessed, Ireland could become not just self-reliant but also an energy exporter!
The Swedes intend to wean themselves off oil completely within 15 years. There is no good reason why we should not do the same.
I've been speaking to Dr Herman Scheer, the 'guru of renewable energy'. As recipient of the Alternative Nobel Prize and general chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy (WCRE) since 2001, he advises: "Don't leave the job to the conventional energy system, because they are prisoners of their own structures. New energies require new protagonists. We cannot wait for consensus among all; the replacement of conventional energy systems with renewable energies is a race against time."
A challenge this big requires both vision and leadership, but so far our Government has demonstrated a reluctance to set about formulating and implementing any sort of coherent energy policy by way of a response. But business people are already moving - with or without Government support - to ensure that our burgeoning new economy is not knocked back to the dark days of the Eighties (or worse) due to our inability to plan for our energy futures.
Peter O'Brien is managing director of Energy Futures, which is hosting The Global Energy Picture in the Mansion House, Dublin, on April 5. For further information and booking visit www.energyfutures.ie
- Peter O'Brien
