Nicholas Leonard: Fiery start to 2011 a sign of things to come for British PM
THE arson and violence at a prison in Sussex on New Year's Eve were an ominous portent for British Prime Minister David Cameron, of the massive challenges he faces in 2011.
The destruction at a so-called 'open' prison -- notorious for the ease with which inmates could hop over the fence and go down to the local supermarket to buy alcohol -- seems to have been a direct consequence of government spending cuts.
In theory, the prison should only have housed 'safe' low-risk occupants. In practice, because of overcrowding elsewhere, it was also being used for higher risk categories, but to save money, staff levels had not been increased to reflect this.
Mr Cameron had wanted to go to Thailand for a holiday, but realised that swanning off to a luxury resort would not go down well with voters who are being told to prepare for austerity on a scale unparalleled since the Second World War.
So instead, Mr Cameron has been dealing with the stresses by jogging round the 1500 acres of landscaped grounds at Chequers, his official country residence. The chancellor, George Osborne, was less constrained by the diktats of the party spin doctors and celebrated the New Year at the upmarket ski resort of Klosters in the Swiss Alps.
Both Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne have a lot more to worry about than the economy. They are under attack within their own ranks for selling out the true spirit of Conservatism in order to keep the coalition on track.
Right-wingers are so angry with their compromises that they are threatening to force a referendum later in the year on whether or not to stay in the European Union.
There is already a referendum scheduled for May 5 on the controversial issue of whether to change the first-past-the-post voting system for the Commons to a partial form of proportional representation. This will be the first referendum in the UK since 1975, when Harold Wilson persuaded sceptical voters to endorse membership of the EU.
May 5 will be a hectic day for political commentators because it also brings local council elections as well as voting for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Cardiff and Belfast.
It is quite conceivable that after those elections, the Liberal Democrats will be in coalition with three different parties: the Conservatives at Westminster, the Scottish Nationalists in Edinburgh and the Labour Party in Wales.
The Labour leader, Ed Miliband, however, has realistic hopes that his party can win outright control in both Scotland and Wales, underpinning his fragile grip on authority within his own ranks.
HE knows that much depends on how he handles relations with the large trade unions. They are threatening massive industrial disruption in April to coincide with the first large-scale implementation of government spending cuts. The strike action would also overlap with both the late Easter holiday and, immediately after it, the royal wedding of William and Katherine.
There are growing doubts among Conservative MPs about whether Mr Cameron has the bottle to deal with these challenges. He has already acquired an unhealthy reputation for being willing to cave in to media and political pressure on such sensitive issues as free books and free milk for children.
It is unfortunate for him that his series of U-turns has coincided with the release of confidential data showing how vigorous his predecessor, Margaret Thatcher, was in fighting for her principles: "You turn if you want to," she famously proclaimed. "The lady's not for turning."
Mr Cameron, say his critics, is every bit as fluent as Ms Thatcher but, when the crunch comes, he buckles.
- Nicholas Leonard
Irish Independent
