Mark McKinnon: 'Mr Invincible' facing fight to convince true conservatives
Mitt Romney's presidential campaign looks to be gathering pace. But he has also been giving his doubters and opponents some serious ammunition.
For a short time after the votes were counted in Florida last week, Mr Romney appeared to be the runaway Republican frontrunner, with a huge primary victory and likely to quickly wrap up his party's nomination for president.
But in the space of 24 hours, he morphed instead into a hobbled and defective candidate, likely to have to slog it out for several more months before stumbling forward to the general election in a substantially crippled fashion.
At first blush, Mr Romney's Florida win was impressive. He took 46 per cent of the vote in a field of four. He won across the board -- men and women, married and single, white and Hispanic, senior and under 30. He won every education group, every income group.
But as the electoral onion got peeled, bruises started to appear. Mr Romney still couldn't muster a majority of hard-core conservatives; among these voters, he came in last. The combined conservative vote spread among his three opponents -- Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum -- added up to more than his own, overall share of the vote. And, most troubling for his prospects in the November election against Barack Obama, Republican voter turnout was down 15pc from the last primary contest in 2008. No great enthusiasm there.
According to opinion polling, Mr Romney emerged from the Florida primary contest with his national approval rating among the independent voters who will determine who sits in the White House for the next four years upside down: 51pc unfavourable to 23pc favourable.
All this after the former Massachusetts governor and his supporters reportedly spent $16m (€12m) in Florida. The campaign aired 3,276 ads -- 99pc of them negative, attacking other candidates. And Restore our Future, the nominally independent campaign group or "Super PAC" that supports Mr Romney, ran a further 4,969 -- all negative.
Such groups have been made possible by a Supreme Court ruling that allows them to raise unlimited money from undisclosed donors. And their advent means the tone of American politics, already often brutal and nasty, has become significantly more negative. It may have helped Mr Romney win among Republicans, but could explain some of the distaste felt by independent voters.
In the closing days of the contest, Mr Romney seemed to relish pounding Newt Gingrich -- the leading "Not Romney" candidate -- laughing and smirking about the attacks. It was no real surprise, then, when Mr Gingrich failed to acknowledge Mr Romney's victory in his "concession" speech, or call to congratulate him on the win -- as is traditionally done.
Of course, Mr Gingrich had vowed to continue the fight "until June or July" before qualifying that remark with great aplomb, "unless Romney drops out sooner".
So, it's pretty clear the former House Speaker has no intention of going quietly into the night; he intends to stick around as long as possible, and inflict some measure of revenge.
Some observers have made the argument that drawn-out primary contests are often a good thing as they make the ultimate winners more battle-tested for the general election. Mr Obama is "Exhibit A": Hillary Clinton took him on a long and arduous march through the 2008 primary season, but it made him a better, tougher candidate.
That may not be the case with Mr Romney. The longer he has to stay in the fray of the primaries, the more likely he is to produce the kind of unforced error that completely stepped on news of his Florida victory, killing the buzz.
During his victory lap of press interviews the day after his decisive win, he said to a CNN anchor: "I'm not concerned about the very poor."
In fairness, the full context included: "We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich -- they're doing just fine."
But politics isn't fair, and the airwaves have been saturated with the clip. And one can only imagine what Team Obama will do with it in the autumn.
MR ROmney was trying to say that his focus was on the middle class, but he ended up reinforcing his greatest vulnerability: the perception that he is rich, elite, and out of touch with the common voter. And then, inexplicably, he only reinforced his problems a day later by standing on stage at a Las Vegas casino hotel to accept the endorsement of one of the country's most outrageous billionaires, Donald Trump.
Mr Romney's chances look good in the rest of this month's primary contests, but Mr Gingrich will be waiting in the weeds on Super Tuesday in early March, when a large clutch of southern states, more conservative and more favourable to the former House Speaker, get to voice their preference.
"Mr Inevitable" Romney is still likely to eventually secure the Republican nomination. But with a pattern of unforced errors like last week's, his prospect of winning the general election is far from secure.
Mark McKinnon, a former Republican adviser, is Global Vice Chair of Hill+Knowlton Strategies
- Mark McKinnon in Washington
Irish Independent
