The Tipp South result has clubbed the major party of Government into a sorry pulp. After weeks when Fianna Fail was able to enjoy the terrible wounds inflicted by the O'Flaherty affair on the Progressive Democrats, it was finally the turn of the senior party in Government to suffer the consequences of a deeply unpopular decision.

After the Clonmel clobbering, where next for Fianna Fail? Backbenchers ruefully admitted yesterday that if the 15pc drop in the party's vote were replicated at the next General Election, then the party would lose 20-27 seats nationally.

Such a scenario, a delicious dream for Fine Gael and Labour, would see 50 Fianna Fail TDs taking their places on the Opposition benches. Whether there would be any PD deputies at all among the 166 members of the House would be of little concern to Dev's Old Party in such a case.

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern doesn't really believe anything like it will happen. His brief statement on the outcome of the Tipp toppling of the Fianna Fail monolith was economical to the point of cool detachment. While congratulating Seamus Healy and acknowledging that ``recent events'' had influenced the outcome, the Taoiseach went on to say that his party would have to ``work harder and listen better.''

Those last two words, whether Mr Ahern realises it or not, are further hostages to fortune.

In a raft of successive opinion polls, at least seven out of ten people were loudly telling the Government that they were opposed to the appointment to the European Investment Bank of a judge who appears to have interfered with the administration of justice to re-list a drink-driving case that had already resulted in a four-year sentence imposed by a colleague on the bench.

One year on, the people were still worried enough by the scandal to protest vociferously. Hardly the short term memory Mary Harney imagined the public have. Nor something that is likely to be finally buried by the summer recess, as the Taoiseach so fervently hopes.

The Taoiseach tried to pass off the criticism by saying the Government had taken a hit, but was moving on. The electorate refused to let him off that easily. When the representative cockpit of South Tipperary was given its chance, it inflicted Fianna Fail's worst mauling in any by-election since the party was founded.

The people have now spoken in no uncertain terms about the O'Flaherty appointment. It is between the people and the party. The appointment is still not made and the people demonstrably don't want it.

If it goes ahead, subject of course to a test in the Supreme Court, then the Taoiseach will have already broken his promise to ``listen better.''

And so the Taoiseach desperately wishes the matter would go away, while saying whatever might sound mollifying for the moment at hand. The public hasn't bought any of it nor the Taoiseach's efforts to wriggle out of it by attempting to place the blame on others.

Mary Harney can't be blamed further she has already paid a heavy political price, with worse to come when the election finally arrives. But Mr Ahern is playing a dangerous game when his words are interpreted as passing the parcel to a fellow Fianna Fail member of cabinet.

Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy was furious at being flung into the front line by his leader in the Dail last week. His anger showed during Priority Questions, some of which had been redirected by the Taoiseach. It led Mr McCreevy into a sustained display of petulance which shocked even his own backbenchers.

There are now splits to be seen, not just between the partner parties in Government, but within Fianna Fail itself. Fears of further tremors will have alarmed the serried ranks of backbenchers - swathes of whom can expect to fall to the electoral scythe if FF bungling continues.

Whether Mr Ahern will indeed ``listen better'' before further havoc is wreaked is anyone's guess. But the public are past being patted on the head and told their concerns have been heard. They have their political masters on the run and know it.