IT IS a tradition stretching as far back as the year 2000 that I tip the winner of the European Championship.

Back then I wrote that France would win, and they won at odds of 5 to 1 and better. This time there's even more free money to be had, as I will be plumping for a 7 to 1 chance to win the tournament which started yesterday in Portugal.

And this time I hope to collect some of that free money myself. Because back in 2000 I changed my mind on my way up to the counter in Ladbrokes, and went for Holland instead of France.

It was a classic punting error, a last-minute rush of blood. But my psychiatrist tells me I may have been subconsciously making the ultimate sacrifice to ensure that France would win, feeling that Zinedine Zidane himself couldn't perform with the weight of my money on his shoulders.

And so it came to pass, with Holland spookily missing not one, but two penalties in the semi-final. In short, I put the readers' happiness above my own.

So what's new? Well, this time I have already plunged, I am looking at that winning docket as I write, so we will all be collecting our free money on July 4. Unless of course I have another rush of blood before the end of this piece.

But no, I am as immovable as the Rock of Gibraltar. I'll tell you first who won't win it. Latvia won't win it, nor will Greece, Switzerland, Russia, Denmark, Sweden, Russia, Bulgaria or Croatia. Just trust me, they won't.

A lot of the "smart money" is on the Czech Republic, but since I actually know who's going to win, and it's not the Czech Republic, maybe that money isn't so smart after all.

Germany are a huge price by their standards, but this time they are just too bad, even by their standards. Holland put in such an abject display against us last week, it boded well for their progress in the tournament. Usually, the teams who look like champions beforehand are eliminated early doors. And while they are typically quarrelsome, Holland are now free of the burden of my money. It will make a difference, but probably not enough.

Portugal as the host nation will do well, but at least one other country will do better. And it won't be France, who were actually quite lucky to win in 2000, when they were in their pomp.

Nor will it be Italy, who were actually quite unlucky in 2000, but who, like the Czech Republic, are carrying too much of the "smart money". In this context, there is no such thing as smart money. There is however, free money, and I will tell you where it is to be found.

Sadly, it won't be found backing England. They are representing the Premiership, our league, the only one in either soccer or Gaelic games with genuine 32-county cross-community support. So we salute them in spirit, but not at the betting office

Perhaps in the past we Irish have been a tad churlish in conceding that our proximity to England was virtually the only thing which made our existence bearable. Without the English telly and the English football, without the land of England itself to escape to, many Irish people would have seen no point in living at all.

But because of certain perceived injustices in the distant past, we Irish have found it hard to let go of our anti-English prejudices. Especially as they have given us such perverse pleasure over the years, when we had nothing else.

Now at last I feel we have put all that unpleasantness behind us, all those perceived wrongs.

Still, England can't win Euro 2004. Yes it would be lovely to see Becks and the lads on an open-topped bus in Oxford Street, on their way to a mass rally in Trafalgar Square, knowing we will be hearing about this glorious triumph every day for the next 40 years.

Ah yes, that would be lovely, but it ain't going to happen.

Sven Eriksson is a hollow man, and even if they look like winning, goalkeeper David James is guaranteed to "throw one in".

The heart says England but the head says Spain.

And some of the heart says Spain too. After all, many Irish people actually live in Spain now, they like it so much.

Traditionally Spain is riven by regional hatreds, but this time I suspect all of Spain will be united against the evil of Islamic fascism. After the Madrid bombings they will be "up for it" like never before, when they have always been fancied but never delivered.

It was said that France couldn't win in 2000 because they'd just won the World Cup. On the other side of this dubious coin, it's said that Spain can't win because they never win these things.

So even though they have a brilliant team and the best league in the world and the tournament is being held on the Iberian peninsula, Spain are still available at 7 to 1 due to the mantra: they can't win, because they never win these things.

They can, and they will.

- Declan Lynch