independent

Wednesday 19 June 2013

Jody Corcoran: Cut to the chase, Taoiseach – our anger will benefit all

There comes a point when you have to wonder if the Government really knows what is going on in this country. You would imagine they do; as individuals, they are deeply embedded in their communities, so they must have some idea what is happening out there.

That said, the longer this austerity crisis goes on, the worse it gets, the more they "spin", the more you really have to wonder if they are not lost in a parallel universe between politics and reality.

Last week, a study found that 1.6 million people were left with a mere €50 or less to spend at the end of each month; also, an accountancy firm estimated that half of all indebted adults had developed health problems related to depression and anxiety. "The job of a debt adviser is as important as a doctor's," according to a partner at Grant Thornton.

In front of Europe last week, Enda Kenny said that people here had taken the pain with remarkable courage, patience and dignity, before he did what he was in Strasbourg to do, which was, effectively, to cling onto a lifebuoy.

At home, Brendan Howlin said the Government was acutely aware of the economic pressure on families; but he also sought to create another impression, by use of a statistic to the effect that savings levels had more than doubled in the final quarter of last year.

These are two decent men – Kenny and Howlin – albeit on comfortable six-figure salaries, so you would like to think that their awareness is true and their empathy genuine.

In fact, knowing them as I do – which is not that very well at all, actually – I still like to think that these men, and all in Government, care about this country and for all who live here.

Which is why the bullshit has got to stop.

The incessant, whirling "spin" is not alone painful to the ear, but has also become lost in translation and is, by now, counterproductive.

More than that, the Government may be actually missing an opportunity here; it may not realise it, but it probably needs the people to be angry right now – and to show that anger and for certain people in Europe to see that anger.

Two years ago the Government embarked upon a course from which it will not now deviate; the further truth, whether you think this course is wrong-headed or not, is that it has played a poor hand reasonably well.

After two years, it has manoeuvred Ireland into such a position that the country is regarded by Europe as a "special case" worthy of a crumb or two from the boardroom table.

We got an indication from Patrick Honohan, the governor of the Central Bank, last week as to what that crumb may be. It boils down to this: to lessen the load on this generation, our great-great- grandchildren will still be paying to bail out the banks of Europe.

Clinging to his lifebuoy, the Taoiseach holds to a commitment from last June that the Eurogroup will "examine" the "situation" of the financial sector here with a view of "further improving" the "sustainability" of the, eh, "well-performing adjustment programme".

As commitments from the Eurogroup go, it is about as meaningless as they come, but it is all we have; that, and the more general affirmation that it is imperative to break the vicious link between banks and sovereigns – going forward, not retrospectively, or so it would seem.

Eight months on from this commitment – Kenny declared it to be "seismic", Gilmore believed it to be a "game changer" – the Eurogroup has yet to "examine" the "situation" here.

It is difficult to fault Kenny and Gilmore, of course: in realpolitik terms, they were trying to "spin" the Eurogroup into something it had not specifically said. But that is not the point...

The reality is worse, by the way: the 'triple A' paymasters – Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands, with Finland – have effectively resiled from the spirit of these commitments, notwithstanding the Taoiseach's "determination" to hold them to something they had never really said.

Kenny is doing a reasonable job, which is laden with political risk, but he has, or is about to, run out of road; he will hit the wall this year, not just in March, when the Anglo Irish Bank promissory note payment of €3.1bn is due, but in June, when we should know the reality behind Ireland's hope to secure debt relief through the ESM.

No, the problem is that we do not know what is going on, that we are not being told, other than on those rare occasions when Honohan may let something slip, or the Taoiseach may deign it appropriate to speak on these most important of matters.

If he has not realised it already, somebody needs to tell Kenny the music has stopped.

He needs to stand still and look the people in the eye; he needs to tell the truth, that Europe may be about to turn its back on us, and then let happen whatever may happen, which will not necessarily be a bad thing.

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