Wednesday 20 September 2017

James Downey: FG closing in on stunning victory as rivals fall away

James Downey

James Downey

OPINION polls cannot tell us the result of the general election next week, but today's Irish Independent-Millward Brown Lansdowne survey comes close. A study of its findings, and analysis of the scenarios that could arise from them, narrow the possibilities almost to zero.

The crucial figure is the support expressed for Fine Gael. This stands at 38pc, a striking increase on the 30pc in the last Irish Independent poll published two weeks ago. A rise of such magnitude in such a short time is dramatic and buttresses all the other evidence of a swing to Fine Gael since the beginning of the election campaign.

It is dangerous to make comparisons between polls conducted by different companies, since they use varying methodologies. However, on this occasion it seems fair to note that 38pc is exactly the same figure as that arrived at by the latest Red C survey. The evidence of a trend is overwhelming.

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