James Downey: Centre parties at risk from voter backlash against FF
Published 02/02/2011 | 05:00
ALONG with the dissolution of the Dail and the beginning of the general election campaign proper has come the first major opinion poll of the campaign, the Millward Brown IMS survey published in this newspaper today.
It confirms in broad terms the existing levels of support for the political parties and the relative standing of their leaders. But it also contains a few surprises, and challenges to the conventional wisdom.
What it cannot contain is the election result. No poll can do that, except the poll in the ballot boxes on election day. The record of Irish political opinion surveys is spectacularly good, and we can take it that this poll reflects accurately the current state of public opinion. However, although it does appear to indicate some intriguing trends we have to be cautious.