RADICAL reshuffle or deckchair shuffle? Rejuvenated Government or same tired faces? Not for the first time Brian Cowen's handlers are promising that their man is going to deliver decisive leadership, and not for the first time there will be little surprise if he fails to live up to their billing.

Those with a short memory, or those whose eyes simply glaze over whenever big ideas are rolled out, may not recall the address to the nation that was meant to come almost two years ago (instead the best we got was a late-night, low-key address to a Chamber of Commerce function); or the public sector reform that has been promised ever since Cowen first went to the Department of Finance; or even the smart new green shiny economy that spawned a 105-page report more than a year ago.

Cowen's people can do the build-up -- the roll of the drums, the leak to political correspondents -- but their master does not follow through. The mood music, though, was building once again last week as Cowen and his coalition partners tried to extricate themselves from two weeks of unrelenting awfulness.

The Taoiseach, we were told by unnamed insiders, was "passionate" when he delivered a "very, very" strong address to Fianna Fail's ard chomhairle last week. He does not mind criticism, apparently. He believes his party needs a shake-up and is more conscious than anyone of its lowly standings in the opinion polls. And, any moment now, he will deliver a reshuffle so radical, and so wide-ranging, that the Government will cruise through the final two years of its term of office.

It is the stuff of fantasy, a promise that cannot be fulfilled because Cowen does not have the imagination, the courage or the will to sweep away unnecessary departments, cull underperforming ministers and lead regeneration from the top down.

A radical reshuffle would see Mary Coughlan, the Tanaiste, returned to the backbenches: she is so clearly out of her depth that 56 per cent of those polled for this newspaper would dump her first (a quite remarkable percentage, given that there was a choice of six ministers). Yet Cowen will keep a trusted ally close rather than give the country the quality of minister it needs at a time of economic crisis.

A radical reorganisation of Government would see the end of the Department of Arts, Sport and Tourism, as well as the end of the Department of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht affairs. That would represent a start, but by no means the end because the current line-up of government departments -- and the numbers of civil servants employed in them -- bears little relation to the needs of the country. We are over-governed: too many departments, too many civil servants, too many quangos, all delivering far too little bang for the bucks they cost.

The most obvious example of over-staffing and duplication comes in the Department of Health (whose minister, Mary Harney, is the public's choice for next to fire after Coughlan). It has retained its staff despite the creation of the Health Service Executive, which actually runs the health service. All the department needs is a handful -- literally -- of policy wonks to determine policy. The same applies to Arts, Sport and Tourism: each area has its own fully staffed quango to actually do the work (like the Irish Sports Council and Arts Council) so who needs a department to run the quango? One or the other, not both.

The same logic applies across the rest of government: agencies and statutory bodies have multiplied like bacteria over the past dozen years without forcing a reorganisation of the departments they report to. A radical reshuffle would cut through all the nonsense, stripping government back to the bare essentials and then reshape it to suit the needs of the country for the next 10 years.

Do we need 15 cabinet ministers? Certainly not. Ten well-structured departments, logically assembled, would do the job, with no more than eight junior ministers spread between them. Throw in an extra, senior, cabinet post to drive through the reform of the public sector and you have a lean government that might actually make a positive difference to people's lives. Its mission statement need be nothing more radical than competence.

If the Government really wants to contribute to the regaining of Ireland's competitive edge then the best it can do is earn a reputation for simple competence: dealing with problems swiftly when they arise, clearing away bureaucratic clutter, creating the conditions in which ordinary businessmen and women can make profits, create jobs and prosper.

A reputation for competent government delivering efficient and cost effective services, allied to a stable political environment (no mad swings between left- and right-wing governments), would be a heady mix for foreign investment and a boon to local business.

There is absolutely no chance that Cowen (or, for that matter, Enda Kenny, the Fine Gael leader) would be prepared to axe that many senior ministers, or even have an interest in that level of structural reform. Instead we will be asked to believe that a few departmental name changes, a couple of promotions for geographically relevant TDs and the culling of Martin Cullen add up to radicalism and rebirth.

In short, if he does not sack Coughlan, appoint a senior minister to oversee reform, cut the number of departments by at least three and promote three new, young faces from the backbenches to replace his old, tired stalwarts, then his talk of radicalism is a sham.

Cowen may fool himself, and may even fool his parliamentary party, but he will not fool the people. They lost faith in his leadership almost as soon as he assumed it and there is no sign of it returning.

A small majority would like to see an election in the next two months (though a far greater majority does not think there will be one) and very few believe that there is any trust left between Fianna Fail and the Green Party. The resignations of Willie O'Dea and Trevor Sargent have broken whatever trust existed and the Government now limps towards its next crisis with both parties knowing that it will not take too much to force a divorce.

Cowen's reshuffle will not be about fixing the country, or delivering better government, or leading reform from the very top: it will be all about Fianna Fail. Ministers will be appointed, or re-appointed, because of what they can deliver for their party, not their country. Geography and internal party power-plays, not individual competence or suitability for office, will determine the line-up.

Depressing but inevitable, because that has been Cowen's Achilles' heel since he became leader: he cannot lift himself far enough out of internal party politics to see the country that he is supposed to be leading.

Built into that emergency election planning will be the likely fallouts from the Moriarty and Mahon tribunals, both of which are due to report in the next weeks or months. If the Government does trip over the next little hurdle, Cowen would presumably hope for an election after Moriarty, which is likely to embarrass Fine Gael, but before Mahon, which is likely to more than embarrass Fianna Fail.

The sad thing is that Cowen's handlers are actually right: they were right to push him towards an address to the nation two years ago and right to advocate radicalism now, but they clearly cannot persuade him to make the leap. In that "passionate" speech to his ard chomhairle, Cowen stuck miserably to his belief that his lack of popularity stems from the "difficult decisions" that he has taken. He cannot see that it was his failure to take difficult decisions in the early part of the economic crisis that condemned him and his Government, or that the minor recovery in support that he has seen has come after a Budget that was, finally and belatedly, tough.

As they were two years ago, during a summer when Cowen and his ministers maintained that the economic fundamentals were sound, the people are way ahead of him. They know how bad the economy is because they experience it, and they know that tough decisions have to be taken if we are to edge back to recovery. They are crying out for leadership and direction, for ideas and for action. They do not need promises of radicalism, or talk of reshuffles: they need a government that can do the simple things well, that elevates competence to an art form and tackles reform with commitment.

That must start at the top, with Cowen, the ministers he chooses and the departments he gives them to run. Lean, efficient, competent government: is it too much to ask?

Originally published in