Hapless Taoiseach lurching from one disaster to next
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WITH his Government's popularity plummeting to unprecedented depths, the Taoiseach is now in mortal danger of suffering an attack of the political bends.
Sinking to 26pc in yesterday's Red C poll leaves Brian Cowen gasping for inspiration while clinging perilously to the wreckage of his coalition.
If he doesn't move fast to stop the rot, Mr Cowen faces an ignominious future -- the shortest-serving Fianna Fail leader and Taoiseach in the party's history.
With his authority in free-fall alongside the Government's credibility, neither would survive another reversal of a major Budget measure.
And ominous thunder emanating from the Bishops about education cuts last night has tilted the enormous burden on the coalition close to unbearable.
And if Fianna Fail and the Greens cannot face down the protests after giving up on the 1pc levy and the medical cards, then they may have no option but to step down.
Privately, Government ministers have acknowledged that they must resist the powerful education lobby and stand firm behind their Budget.
But then farmers, sensing their weakness and readiness to trade credibility for survival, are also ready to launch a nationwide campaign to challenge reduced payments.
And if its defence of the Budget continues over the next couple of weeks as it has over the past 13-days, the Government will fold like a cheap deckchair.
Fianna Fail, in one guise or another, has been -- almost uninterrupted -- in power for 21 years.
And now they must do the people's business or do mea culpa and slink away from office.
The Fine Gael and Labour Party frontbenches are buoyed up by the first opinion poll since the Budget while the government parties are putting the best face on an unmitigated disaster.
The Opposition are doing what is an Opposition's duty, oppose; offering potential solutions is an optional extra.
Memories of Fianna Fail's fierce and unrelenting opposition when the Rainbow was in government from 1994 to 1997 are rekindled by each unforced error, mistake and miscalculation.
Wiser members know that governments lose office rather than oppositions win it and baulk at the thought of gaining power at such a terrifying point in the economic cycle.
But, as Mary Harney's memorable text put it, "The worst day in government is better than the best days in opposition".
Even if the Green Party disappoints their critics and refuses to abandon ship, there is growing discontent among his own backbenchers and a new nervousness among Fianna Fail ministers.
Yesterday's opinion poll in the Sunday Business Post shows the lowest ever rating for Fianna Fail since its foundation 82 years ago.
To save his Government and secure his leadership, Brian Cowen has to first re-establish authority in his own party.
A no-holds-barred, face-to-face with his parliamentary party, spelling out the terrifying prospect of a major world recession, would be a first step.
The real test of his leadership would be to convince the country.
Cabinet veterans showed their worth when it came to departmental cuts and the hardest hit were those with the least experienced ministers.
And as public anger fails to dissipate, the same ministers will be looking around the cabinet table and working out who stands with whom.
Although she implements government policy, Mary Harney is vulnerable because her party is of no consequence and blamed, unfairly, for the failures in the health service.
Backbenchers -- and other ministers -- don't believe Mary Coughlan has the natural authority to cut it as Tanaiste when she deputises for Brian Cowen.
And despite his formidable intellect and political pedigree, Brian Lenihan's inexperience as Minister for Finance is being held culpable for a catastrophic Budget.
How can they continue?
Yet another stab at increasing taxes with no serious attempt to cut government spending is a more likely outcome of the latest crisis than a sober reappraisal of their political mortality.
The next Budget will probably come sooner than expected and the income levy will continue with further rises in property and car park taxes and another increase in third level fees posing as enhanced registration fees.
And another 'adjustment' (upward, as always) in PRSI and if the global economic situation deteriorates -- as most commentators predict -- then we are looking at a serious fall in incomes when tax bands are not indexed.
There is also incontrovertible evidence from the Central Statistics Office that starkly spells out how its warning to address government spending was ignored.
When 74pc of public servants earn more than the average national wage compared to less than 50pc of employees in the private sector, it highlights the failure to tackle the inequity in the Budget.
The analysis was prepared two years ago and based on the 325,000 employed as civil servants, teachers, health workers and in State-owned bodies like CIE.
Yet last night the Church, for whom the State paid so many of the bills for children abused by clerics, backed the teachers rather than taxpayers.
Private sector employees will view with equal anger and envy those public servant unions fighting so ferociously for their fee-paying members.
But that is a moot point.
The Government has yet to address reform in the public sector.
