In 1986, the General Council of County Councils held its annual convention in Portlaoise in honour of its then chairman, Cllr Tom Keenan.

The country was in a state of flux under Garret Fitz-Gerald's government. Three general elections in 18 months, from June 1981 to November 1982, were followed by European elections and a Laois-Offaly by-election in 1984. Then came the deeply divisive divorce and abortion referenda, all swallowed with a strong dose of fiscal rectitude.

It was against this backdrop that I was pressed to explain the phenomenon of the "floating vote" to a table full of councillors attending the conference dinner in the Killeshin Hotel. Among them a true blue from Stradbally, Cllr Jimmy Buggie, who was as straight as a die.

"I'm a typical floating voter," I set out, about to break my golden rule on the confessional sanctity of the ballot box.

With my first ever vote, I gave Alan Dukes my number one in '81. Dukes cut an impressive figure as he strode across our estate in St Evin's Park in his own first election. But by the next February, as a former card-carrying punk rocker myself, I took a shine to Charlie McCreevy. Gutsy, my kind of man. But McCreevy and I were not to last. That November I took up with the big, burly and bald Joe Bermingham. Within 18 months my startling metamorphosis had occurred: I was after all a socialist, for the rest of 1982 at least.

"I am a typical floating voter," I owned up.

"I'll tell you what you are, a bloody turncoat," accused Cllr Buggie, having none of it. Like I said, a true blue.

Opinion polls are made up of floating voters. You just don't know what they are going to do next. Turncoats on every corner, but they will decide the outcome of the next general election and determine who will be the next Taoiseach. Three elections in 18 months? Unlikely. But Brian Cowen's Government to go its full term? Hardly.

In recent weeks there have been three national opinion polls, and they all confirm the same thing. The Government is reviled, with Fianna Fail's support down by half from its general election standing to a historic low of 22 per cent. Brian Cowen has become a hate figure, bearing the brunt of the public ire, his satisfaction ratings down to 21 per cent. But, extraordinarily, while Fine Gael's ratings are higher, satisfaction with Enda Kenny is languishing at 29 per cent, trailing the star performance of Labour's Eamon Gilmore at 52 per cent.

Last week, Prof Kevin O'Rourke suggested that we had moved past a recession into a depression -- but it's not a Great Depression as it has not yet gone on for years, he explained. We are in a depression, Fianna Fail has been in power for 18 of the last 20 years, satisfaction with Government is down to 14 per cent, and yet the Kenny factor is hurting Fine Gael. The electorate is not buying into him as an alternative Taoiseach, his personal ratings slumping to their lowest in six years.

If there were an election in the morning, Fine Gael would not win any additional seats, for example, in Laois/ Offaly, Kildare South and Louth, quite simply as they haven't got the candidates in place. With all the fuss about Fine Gael making a 20-seat gain in the 2007 general election, it remains an appalling indictment of the party that it could not win even one seat out of three in Kildare South, the constituency of its former leader, the much-lauded Alan Dukes. Kenny imposed former Irish Farmers' Association chief Alan Gillis in Kildare, and it backfired. In Louth, Euro MEP Mairead McGuinness, although respected for her common sense and common touch, failed to make a breakthrough -- again, the Kenny factor failing her in the finish.

She vigorously disputes this conjecture. "My opinion on the poll results from a Fine Gael perspective is that we are making slow, steady and sustainable gains. We have set out our stall straight and harsh. We have a team that can deliver under Enda Kenny, and there is great faith in Richard Bruton's leadership on finance. No-one is going to romp home in the next election, no matter what the polls say, as people are angry with all politics and it is up to us to convince them that we are the party of integrity, with the arguments, analysis and strong steady leadership that they can trust."

In any event, she believes the proposal is academic. "I doubt very much there will be a general election as the Government is not prepared to face the electorate". She is probably right. On many occasions I have witnessed Cowen calm the troops, as the Soldiers of Destiny came under fire. "Relax, take it easy would ye. This is a great game played slow," he would advise fellow TDs. The Taoiseach will take the long view and smoke Enda Kenny out, wear him down with doubt over the next three years.

Nowhere are Fine Gael's inadequacies more exposed than in the Taoiseach's own constituency of Laois/Offaly. It's often referred to as a five-seat marginal, but that's baloney, as Fianna Fail has had three safe seats here since 1977 thanks largely to Fine Gael ineptitude. In 2002, the party had to pay Latvian workers to erect election posters. While Charlie Flanagan regained his seat in 2007, previously lost to the Progressive Democrats' Tom Parlon, neither Deputy Flanagan nor Olwyn Enright fancy or favour a strong third candidate vying to win an extra seat. Even though they are both frontbench spokespersons who inherited their seats, neither has encouraged a strategy which would challenge Fianna Fail's dominance, preferring instead to protect their own patch.

Fianna Fail, by contrast, fields four candidates, the tension on the ticket ensuring they maximise the vote and secure their three seats.

Former Fine Gael leader, Alan Dukes, agrees that mistakes may have been made and accepts that Labour's dramatically improved ratings have taken the focus off Fine Gael's more modest gains. The man who put his country first with his 1987 Tallaght Strategy, paying a high political price and even losing his own seat in 2002, remains optimistic about the party's future.

"History shows that Fine Gael does better in actual elections than in opinion polls." He is convinced his party will regain its seat in Kildare thanks to young candidates who will emerge in June's local elections.

Also on June 5 will be the two Dublin by-elections, but Fine Gael has yet to put forward its candidates. Party strategist Frank Flannery insists they are far from complacent or triumphalist in view of Fianna Fail's tribulations.

Mr Flannery has his eye on a bigger prize. "The Fianna Fail machine is not going to fold up and go home, and the local elections will not be the bloodbath for them that some are predicting. If an election is sprung, we are ready; our target is 71 seats and that's well within our reach."

Still, it is the floating voter that will decide. For my own part, I regret abandoning Alan Dukes all those years ago. He was genuinely patriotic and pretty good at the sums.