Desperate times see Cowen turn to desperate measures
VOTERS commonly make up their minds how to cast their ballots the weekend before an election, or even earlier. Just as well for Fine Gael, whose supporters -- including vast numbers of new recruits -- have heard mixed messages in the last few days.
First, Frank Flannery made the extraordinary suggestion that the party should consider getting closer to Sinn Fein, even to the extent of joining with them in a coalition government. Mr Flannery is not an obscure council candidate but one of Fine Gael's most respected gurus. He was repudiated at once by Enda Kenny, and again yesterday by Gay Mitchell, the front-runner in the Dublin Euro-constituency.
Yesterday, too, the former Taoiseach Dr Garret FitzGerald recommended that Fine Gael voters should transfer their preferences to pro-Europe candidates. In this, he echoed a similar appeal, from the other side of the fence, by Taoiseach Brian Cowen.
It takes no great genius to identify which particular poll both of them have in mind.
Fianna Fail's Eoin Ryan is engaged in a desperate struggle for survival in the European Parliament election in Dublin. He is fighting for the last of the three seats with Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein and Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party. He will need transfers, but his opponents are more likely than he is to benefit from transfers. If re-elected, he may owe his success to second and lower preferences from Fine Gael and/or Labour.
And if Fianna Fail lose their only European seat in the capital, Brian Cowen will suffer a severe blow, possibly a mortal blow.
What, then, are the prospects for those Fine Gael and Labour transfers? That depends on whether sufficient electors are willing to set aside -- if only in part -- their determination to express their anger with the Government in order to show their consciousness of the huge importance of another issue.
At a guess, these will not be numerous. Mr Ryan is an attractive candidate, but so is Mr Higgins, a man famed for wit, not bitterness. Many will give him a "stroke" or even a first preference although they disagree with him on Europe and other issues.
They may also reflect that the election of one opponent of the Lisbon Treaty, out of a dozen MEPs, will not have any major repercussions. And they know that they will have a second chance to vote 'Yes' to Lisbon in the second referendum on the treaty in the autumn.
Nevertheless, Dr FitzGerald was right to call attention to the overwhelming importance of the treaty, bring it to the forefront of the debate, and make a move in the direction of national consensus.
By a shocking stroke of bad luck, the rejection of the treaty in the first referendum a year ago coincided with the beginning of awareness that the national and global financial and economic crisis was having drastic effects in Ireland. Since then, none of the Government's efforts to handle the crisis have impressed the public.
The indications are that we will vote 'Yes' the second time round, if only out of desperation. But there is still a big "disconnect" between the perceptions of the public on the one hand and those of dedicated pro-Europeans and well-informed persons close to the subject, like Dr FitzGerald and Mr Ryan.
The Government made a mistake -- one of many -- by trying to play down the effect of last year's 'No' vote in Europe. It drastically diminished our reputation there and farther afield. Some of our standing will never be recovered.
But the ill-effects already suffered are as nothing compared with those which would flow from a second rejection. At worst, our membership of the common currency, even our membership of the union itself, could come under threat. At a minimum, we could expect less European help in our efforts to get the public finances and the banking system under control and to promote economic recovery.
In addition, it would affect a question which is always of the first importance for the major continental countries, Britain's "semi-detached" position.
The Conservative Party is virtually certain to win the next British general election. Unless by then all 27 EU countries have ratified the Lisbon Treaty, David Cameron will hold a referendum with the purpose of reversing his country's previous endorsement of the treaty. That could provoke a crisis of confidence -- in the midst of the continent's current economic and financial woes.
By comparison, the loss or gain of one European Parliament seat in Dublin may seem a very small matter. But another question of confidence arises, this time at the domestic level.
What if Brian Cowen's party cannot win a single Euro-seat in our capital city? It might or might not bring about an early general election, as Enda Kenny thinks, but it would certainly cast even greater gloom over his prospects of governing with any authority or credibility. He knows that, and in the hope of avoiding such an outcome he obviously thinks appealing for Fine Gael and Labour support a price well worth paying.
jdowney@independent.ie
