Depression has not quite given into despair, just yet
Tuesday October 15 2002
The sense that Northern Ireland politics had suffered a major setback was evident everywhere, but although there was pessimism the depression did not seem to amount to despair.
This appears to be because the Good Friday Agreement still survives, though with the mothballing of the Assembly there is for the moment certainly a huge gap in its superstructure.
And in addition to this continuing political process, at an even more fundamental level the peace process itself is still going along, battered and imperfect but still saving lives.
Some of the politicians drifting around Stormont yesterday, on its last day of power for some time, were almost blase in arguing that some time next Spring the freeze-dried executive can be dug out of the freezer and, as it were, microwaved back into life.
It's the only way, they argued: all roads lead back to Stormont, a seat of power which holds an irresistible magnetism for the major parties.
Those parties might heartily loathe each other but they'll have to make a deal if they want power back.
This was however a minority view. "Our party is evenly split," said a Trimble Unionist, "between those who think we'll be back within a year and those who think we'll never be back."
A senior official shook his head: "At the moment there's so much bad blood around that I can't see it getting up again quickly. The general mood is pessimistic, worried."
In the gilded Central Hall Martin McGuinness, having answered questions as education minister for the last time, wore an unexpectedly broad smile.
He seemed both philosophical and upbeat, wearing the air of a man who has gone through so many crises in his life that this one, though serious, is just the latest.
He made the point that much of all this is about a crisis within unionism as Protestants continue to grapple with the question of how to deal with the nationalists in society.
But there is also every sign that the republican movement has its own crises, or at least major problems, in terms of continuing IRA activity and how it is damaging the process.
Right now republicans face criminal charges in three separate jurisdictions - Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic, and Colombia. Thus the state of both unionism and republicanism will, over the coming months, help determine whether another power sharing executive can be constructed.
The immediate pressure will be on the IRA to come up with something dramatic, on the theory that unionists will not again share power with republicans while the IRA remains active.
No one knows whether the IRA will produce something big; no one knows how unionists, whose attitudes have been steadily hardening, will react if they do.
The negotiations ahead will be as difficult as any so far in the process. In the meantime a middle-ranking civil servant spoke for many in explaining how he fends off despair. "You could be depressed but there's no point in thinking like that," he said.
"A process that's trying to get us out of 30 years of severe conflict may well have a number of hurdles to jump before it arrives at the ideal compromise. The main thing is not to give up hope."
- David McKittrick
