Deeds don't match words at this bonfire of the vanities
We're a poor country now -- and we will be a lot poorer before the year is out, writes John Drennan
Sunday February 08 2009
IN the twilight of the era of the Celtic Tiger, one of the more poignant sights was that of the 20-year-old country girls on the commuter train to Portlaoise.
Each morning they would chat about their breakfast-roll-man fiances, the new home, the curtains, the weddings, children and the other everyday dreams cherished by those who do not exist in the world of bankers and social partnership.
Over the last two years as they texted and read their Collette Caddle novels it was sad to think that these innocents were the economic canaries of the Celtic Tiger coal mine.
But, like all victims, our country girls knew nothing of their insignificant status. The shorter trains are now empty, and the girls with the new engagement rings that sparkled on optimistic fingers have grown quiet.
It is a terrible thing for the young to learn they have an uncertain future, but in our newly poor country as they live in jerry-built ghost towns and fight with three-day-week breakfast-roll man over money, they know now that dreams are brittle.
In the empty streets of Dublin, where even the great shopping mecca of Grafton Street is now one giant discount store, our current status is all too clear.
The taint of cheapness is everywhere. For even those who are "fortunate enough" to be in employment can now aspire to nothing more than survival and the possibility of an electoral act of vengeance on those we blame for getting us there.
But the swing from a haunted guilty government, which Enda Kenny presciently noted has "turned its face away from the people'', is informed by despair over Brian Cowen rather than any rational belief in Enda.
The bad news, however, is that we are about to become even poorer.
The angry citizenry of the private sector economy may have smiled grimly after the Government steeled itself and dug its hands deep into the pockets of the so-called cosseted public-sector workers. But do you really think €2bn is the end of it?
We are a poor country now and we will be poorer.
Last week a lot of stunned public-sector workers (and trade union leaders) learned the hard way that taking €2bn out of the public sector sounds grand in theory but the practice is a little bit different.
As our €1,000-a-week middle-ranking civil servants wake up to the reality of a loss of €70 a week in disposable income, they and the rest of us need to realise that the Government will come again and again -- for they have no other choice.
After all the golden years of grasshopper-style fiscal gaiety they will come for third-level fees, they will come for rates, they will come for for carbon taxes, and for water taxes and possibly even more personal taxes.
In short, when it comes to our poor €50,000-a-year man by the time the Government finishes they will take up to €6,000 a year back.
People, even if they are working, will have no money.
If we are lucky, the change will be seen in the little things such as the summer trip by the entire family to Croke Park, a foreign holiday, a morning cappuccino, a meal out once a month, a warm house in the wintertime. And with those little deaths comes the murder of the retail economy.
'In the empty streets of Dublin, even the shopping mecca of Grafton Street is one giant discount store'
But Mr Cowen may have to face worse travails than the legacy of being the first Taoiseach since Liam Cosgrave to preside over domestic rates or the return of the sort of personal taxes last seen in the era of Garret FitzGerald.
In fairness to the Government, it is living in a world which appears to be witnessing the collapse of capitalism.
This, however, brings further dangers: if Barack Obama, Gordon Brown and Angela Merkel are also queueing in the fiscal soup kitchen when Pat taps the knee of our world banker with his tin cup, there is only going to be one winner.
And if Pat kicks up or tries any of that Celtic Tiger lord and master of the universe stuff he'll get the same treatment as Oliver Twist once experienced.
The problem this poses for Mr Cowen is that when it comes to his version of recovery it is predicated on the Government being able to borrow €8bn a year for infrastructural development.
But it is quite possible that Europe, China or the International Monetary Fund could yet cast a beady eye on the Government's €8bn plan and say sorry, mate, but no thanks.
If that happens, and our tax take drops to €34bn, it's not just that we won't have the luxury of waiting until autumn for the Government's secret plans to impose €4bn of tax increases on us.
We may be poor now -- but we will soon be poorer.
The Government can dodge, weave and frantically deny that Ireland has a sub-prime housing crisis but in a country where houses in Tulsk (apparently it's near the place where Mrs McAleese has a holiday home, to go with the free gaff in the Aras -- aren't some of us still doing well?) sell for less than €100,000 or so, they're whistling against the chilly wind.
No legislation on housing seizures can hide the fact that if unemployment goes above 400,000 and our breakfast-roll men join our country girls on the wasteland of the welfare offices, 100,000 people will be living in houses they cannot pay for.
If that happens we will have more than a sub-prime housing crisis.
In Leinster House two of the most frankly terrifying events occurred long after the thunder and bluster of the clashes between the leaders.
It was un-nerving enough that in the subsequent debate on the economy the best ideas our few constructive politicians could come up with to create jobs consisted of plans for extra home insulation and some school repair schemes.
In that moment it was clear that while the Government may dream of creating a new 'Green' Celtic Tiger economy, their true response bears a closer resemblance to the social employment, famine relief-style schemes of the 1980s.
What was even more frightening to hear was the number of TDs who spoke of unemployed constituents who are starving.
Forget about simply being a poor country. Unless Mr Cowen matches words delivered in chamber of commerce speeches with deeds, we will be lucky if Dublin is not on fire before the year is out.
- John Drennan
