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As the Government itself knows and has pointed out plenty of times, people often use referendum campaigns as a way to protest against some aspect of Government policy that has nothing to do with the referendum itself.
One reason the outcome of the EU fiscal treaty referendum is in doubt is because many people will vote against it as a way of protesting against spending cuts and tax increases.
However, another group of people is likely to be moving into the No camp and that is pro-life voters annoyed by the Government's increasingly ambivalent attitude towards the right to life.
The first Lisbon Treaty was defeated partly by pro-life voters concerned that the incorporation of the EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights into EU law via the treaty would eventually compromise our Constitution.
Following the defeat of Lisbon first time around, guarantees were granted around such issues as abortion and family law and this helped to carry the treaty the second time around.
However, the Government seems to have completely forgotten this lesson because on issue after issue it is treating pro-life and pro-family voters with ill-concealed contempt.
Since this Government has assumed power, we have had Enda Kenny's over-the-top attack on the Vatican and the closing of our embassy to the Holy See.
A new law on mandatory reporting of child abuse is being introduced, which will require the breaking of the seal of confession. This is highly unusual among Western democracies. Indeed, many Western countries explicitly protect the seal of confession in their laws.
One reason they do this is because they respect freedom of religion. Another is that they know asking priests to break the seal won't protect a single child. It is clear that no one would confess child abuse to a priest if they knew they would then be reported to the police.
Kudos to the Association of Catholic Priests for coming out so strongly in defence of the seal.
In addition, Labour wants to introduce same-sex marriage. More generally, it appears to believe that the special status granted by our Constitution to marriage reduces other types of families to second-level status and therefore is 'discriminatory'.
But logically this means that Labour sees no particular benefit in encouraging mothers and fathers to raise their own children together in a legally binding relationship. It no longer sees any need to give this uniquely pro-child social institution unique and special support.
Fine Gael, for its part, is also moving in this direction.
Next we have Education Minister Ruairi Quinn's continuing attacks on denominational schools. He wants half of them handed over to other patron bodies and the advisory group to his forum on denominational education wants the rest of them so severely denuded of their ethos that they will hardly be worth having.
Finally, there is the abortion issue. Last week, a private member's bill appeared before the Dail proposing to legalise abortion in Ireland in particular circumstances.
As represented by Health Minister James Reilly, the Government offered no principled objection to the bill. Instead, the minister told the Dail that the Government was opposed to it for purely legal reasons and would await the recommendations of an expert group looking into the issue before it decided how it would legislate for abortion.
Mr Reilly gave every impression that the Government intends to legislate for abortion in some fashion in the not-so-distant future. This is in response to a ruling of the European Court of Human Rights, which asked us to clarify exactly when a woman in Ireland can and can't receive a 'life-saving' abortion.
However, Mr Reilly neglected to mention that rulings of the European Court of Human Rights are not binding in Irish law. He also neglected to mention the fact that Ireland is one of the safest place in the world for a woman to have a baby. Our hospitals have an enviable record for protecting mother and child. We should be proud of that.
When you add together Government moves to undermine the right to life, its attack on the Vatican, its closing of the embassy to the Holy See, its moves to change the constitutional definition of the family and its targeting of denominational schools, it is clear that the Government is pursuing a very radical social agenda and is doing so more or less under the radar.
Obviously there is a wing in Fine Gael that will be happy with this but mainly it suits a Labour Party agenda. Is it really in Fine Gael's long-term interests to enable Labour to wage such an aggressive and multi-pronged against the right to life, marriage and denominational schools? Is this really why people, including me, voted for Fine Gael last year?
In next month's referendum, every vote is likely to count. Faced with such a radical social agenda, pro-life and pro-family voters may feel they have no other choice than to vote against the fiscal treaty, whatever the merits or demerits of the treaty itself.
Irish Independent
