David Blair: West must reassess its approach towards Syria after vetoes
The double veto cast by Russia and China in the United Nations Security Council has forced the West to reappraise its approach towards Syria. But there are other ways of turning up the heat on President Bashar al-Assad.
The options are:
• Taking further diplomatic and economic measures: the Western powers and their Arab allies may well turn to the UN General Assembly, urging it to condemn Mr Assad and support the Arab League peace plan, which requires him to hand power to his vice-president.
Likelihood: High
• Helping the Free Syrian Army (FSA): the presence of a guerrilla force consisting largely of defectors from the regular army presents opportunities and pitfalls. With the West having reached the limits of the non-military measures, the temptation will be to aid his opponents.
The West could offer non-lethal assistance, probably involving logistics, intelligence, communications and reconnaissance.
Likelihood: High
• The FSA could also be supplied with weapons and ammunition. This would build up the rebels' strength quickly, but it would breach an EU arms embargo. There is also the risk that the rebels would use their weapons to carry out atrocities.
Likelihood: Low
• Turning a blind eye to Arab countries supplying the FSA: if the West handed out non-lethal aid, this would provide cover for Syria's neighbours to supply weapons.
Likelihood: Medium
• Taking direct military steps: this could include a no-fly zone or buffer areas where civilians would be safe, but any such action would need Security Council authority.
A no-fly zone would be an "act of frustration to solve a non-existent problem", as Syria's air force has played no role in the crisis, said Jonathan Eyal of the Royal United Services Institute.
Likelihood: Low
The major risk is more bloodshed. Helping the regime's opponents would embolden them but cause more fighting. If Mr Assad concludes that the FSA is about to receive support, he will try to crush the rebels.
That might explain the bloodshed this week in the city of Homs.
Another option would be to urge a negotiated settlement.
As former British ambassador to Syria Andrew Green noted: "Our policy should be directed towards mitigating conflict, not exacerbating it." (© Daily Telegraph, London)
- David Blair
Irish Independent
