Cowen must sweat on his party's response to new Budget measures
Government faces collapse if a couple of key players withdraw their support, says Jody Corcoran
When Finance Minister Brian Lenihan delivered his first Budget last October, Fianna Fail TDs -- who had not taken on board its full significance -- spontaneously rose to their feet in acclaim, a tradition accorded to all ministers for finance.
During the boom years, the detail mattered little. Budgets were bountiful -- tax cuts, increased spending -- everyone a winner, or so it seemed. The niceties could be left to the Finance Bill, which few bothered with.
Fine Gael was quick to seize on the ovation for Lenihan. They produced an email showing row after row of dark-suited Fianna Fail TDs applauding, as they portrayed it, the minister taking medical cards from the elderly, an email likely to be presented as a fully-fledged election poster whenever that may be.
On April 7, when Mr Lenihan delivers what will effectively be his second Budget, which is expected to take about €6bn out of the economy, it is likely Fianna Fail TDs will stay rooted to their seats, perhaps offering only muted applause.
If that proves to be their only reaction, the Government will be relieved.
After the October Budget, the Government lost the support of one of its own, Joe Behan, and the support of the independent TD, Finian McGrath, who also used the opportunity to jump ship.
At the time, elements within the Greens hit a speed bump or two before its ministers, John Gormley and Eamon Ryan, steadied the wobble.
The upshot was that the Government's majority was reduced to seven.
All it would take now is the loss of four votes for the Government to fall.
Since those heady days the world economy has passed a tipping point -- a deep global recession is now taking hold and recovery is likely to be sluggish at best.
Policymakers are becoming increasingly aggressive in dealing with the worsening outlook, but the economic downturn is well-entrenched.
In Ireland, tax revenue has dropped dramatically and expenditure pressures are increased hugely.
Unless public expenditure is cut dramatically, the Department of Finance estimates that the General Government Deficit will remain in the 11-12 per cent of GDP range for each of the years up to 2013. The next general election is due in 2012.
As it stands, the Government looks, tentatively, capable of withstanding the inevitable outcry that will arise from Lenihan's latest and most severe slash and burn. But it may not stand that way for very long.
Recent remedial efforts, such as the public service pension levy, have stoked the flames of dissent throughout the country: pickets and protests are now almost a daily occurrence.
Allowing for continued shrinking of the private sector, Lenihan will be taking about €5bn out of the economy, if borrowing is to be held at 9.5 per cent of GDP.
a source close to the Government said: "If the Government doesn't cut deep enough now, it'll have to come back again in a couple of months time, and that's just not on."
He added, pessimistically, that there was a distinct possibility that the Government would not get the Budget through the Dail.
The Budget has been timed to coincide with the solemnities of Easter, with the Dail in recess for a couple of weeks, during which much of the initial heat will evaporate.
The focus of the public reaction will initially centre on the two independent TDs, Jackie Healy Rae and Michael Lowry, both of whom have displayed considerable political skill to remain below the radar.
They will carefully gauge the public mood before they decide what to do. Were the fall of the Government to be sparked by the withdrawal of their support, it is possible that they may benefit rather than suffer.
By that, I mean, it is likely they would be re-elected rather than lose their seats, which is the primary consideration of all politicians of every party, and is, for most, more urgent even than the state of the national finances.
If just two more TDs followed the independents and withdrew their support, the Government may fall.
There is a body of opinion within Fianna Fail that a spell in opposition at this stage might not be a bad idea, even if an election now would lead to the decimation of the party, a bodyblow that it might take a decade or even a generation from which to recover.
The argument goes that time in opposition would give the party a chance to regroup and plan a comeback in 2012.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen would not agree with the purveyors of that opinion within his own party, not least because it would signal the end of his leadership.
Cowen is hoping to keep the show on the road long enough for international events to turn, which may happen some time in late 2009, but more likely in early 2011.
The upturn will only be slight when it comes, and it seems optimistic in the extreme that Fianna Fail will take the plaudits for the efforts of Barack Obama, for example, and a few central bankers around the world.
It is inevitable, either now or in three years, that Fianna Fail will suffer badly at the polls, a foretaste of what it will get in the local and European elections this June.
Fine Gael and Labour, meanwhile, are chomping at the bit for some time now, anxious to take told of the reins, all talk of national or unity Governments, or even a Tallaght-type strategy Mark 11, roundly scoffed at.
Several Fianna Fail TDs I have spoken to think it's not a bad idea to let the Opposition deal with the mess over the next three years in the hope that they, too, will be damaged goods come election time.
It may seem cynical in the extreme, but that's politics, and it will stay like that, even if the country were bankrupt and the IMF closing hospitals throughout the country.
The Greens, meanwhile, will hope to continue to take care of its own constituency.
But Mr Lenihan's decisions next month will be so wide-ranging that it seems inevitable that supporters of the Greens, at best luke-warm about its presence in Government, will have their pet projects mothballed too.
It seems possible that Gormley and Ryan can control the fallout, but it is not inevitable.
Then there are the Fianna Fail TDs themselves, many of whom are maverick enough to look after themselves first, the party second and the country third.
If only two of them were to go the way of Joe Behan and follow the independents by withdrawing their support, in the hope that the electorate will reward them, an election would seem inevitable.
So we are entering one of the most politically unstable periods in recent decades, the outcome as uncertain as everything else seems to be at the moment.
