Bring on Keynes's animal spirits
It is understandable that most people now are seeking safety -- but is it the safety of the cage, asks Aengus Fanning
There is a delusion that because of the budget on December 9 we have turned some invisible corner, that we have stabilised, that we are at the bottom, and that from the second half of 2010 it will inevitably be onwards and upwards to growth.
There is not much more basis in fact for this assumption than there was in the familiar mantras in an earlier part of this cycle, such as that the fundamentals were sound, that we were in danger of talking down the economy, that a soft landing was coming and, later on, in a brazen somersault, we were told that we don't know how bad things really were.
In truth, this is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, and there is very little evidence to convince us that it is anything more than the end of the beginning.