A battle for the ideological soul of Ireland is under way, the outcome crucial, for it will dictate the future of the country for at least a decade or maybe a generation to come.

In many ways, the battle has already been won -- or lost, depending on your perspective. I would say lost.

The future, then, is socialism, or so it would seem: not the woolly socialism of David Begg and his beloved Scandinavian model, but the unreconstructed socialism of Jack O'Connor and his cabal. Do not say you have not been warned.

The momentum is currently with this well-organised band of former communists and socialists who have been licking their wounds for almost 20 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the totalitarian regimes of Eastern Europe.

That collapse reinforced the primacy of liberal capitalism, as initially espoused by Ronald Reagan in the United States and Margaret Thatcher in Britain, and applied here, though in a more nuanced form, throughout the early Celtic Tiger years of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats.

The Celtic Tiger years were the good years, by the way, even if it is now not de rigueur to say so.

The former communists and socialists are portraying worldwide economic events as not just a failure of capitalism, but as the collapse of capitalism.

It might be more accurately described as a failure of regulation, though that does not sound quite so sexy. In any event, the former communists and socialists have seen an opportunity to reassert themselves and they are busy exploiting it.

So a lopsided political battleground is drawn -- lopsided because, as things stand, the end result will almost inevitably be left-wing government for the next 10 years or so. The only question now is just how left wing . . .

On one side is Eamon Gilmore of the resurgent Labour Party, whose only contribution, so far, has been the skillful use of naked political opportunism to take advantage of the fortunate timing of worldwide economic events.

Gilmore has been helped by a lack of proper leadership in the two main political parties -- particularly in Fine Gael, a party in the ideological wilderness for more than 20 years.

Not much is known about the Labour leader: for two years in the Seventies he served as president of the Union of Students in Ireland, one of a number of such prominent figures who, at the time, were also associated with Official Sinn Fein.

In 1985 he was elected to Dublin County Council, and to the Dail in 1989, as a member of the Workers' Party. In 1992 he joined with Proinsias De Rossa and five other Workers' Party TDs in the creation of New Agenda, which became Democratic Left.

In 1999, Democratic Left merged with Labour, and has since effectively taken over Ireland's oldest political party.

These days Gilmore would describe himself as a "social democrat" -- which, for brevity's sake, is a kind of Marxism-lite.

But he is working hand in glove with what might be called democratic socialists, the newly militant trade union movement, bought off in the good days but now flexing its muscle again to great effect.

Sinn Fein, ideologically lost since it gave up murder, is preparing to climb on board with its own brand of "socialist republicanism", a helping hand extended by many in the trade union movement and a few in this new Labour Party who through the years might loosely be described as sneaking regarders.

On the other side of the battlefield is a browbeaten Fianna Fail, which, since its inception, has traded successfully on its "all things to everybody" brand, most brilliantly encapsulated by its former leader Bertie Ahern -- who was, uniquely, both capitalist and socialist.

Under Ahern's stewardship, Ireland fundamentally changed throughout the Celtic Tiger decade, not just economically, but also, euphemistically, in relation to what we call the North.

The upshot is that a new generation left behind the politics of civil war, if it ever knew anything about it, to be replaced now along a more traditional left-right divide -- except that currently there is no right. Fianna Fail had plugged into this new elite -- that is, just about everybody -- and won three elections in a row.

But the party has been in slow decline since it ejected Charlie McCreevy, perhaps the only true supporter of liberal capitalism Fianna Fail has ever produced.

Ahern's successor, Brian Cowen, would also describe himself as a "social democrat", with more centrist leanings.

But he is strongly imbued with an old-fashioned sense of elitism, as represented by the socialist wing of Fianna Fail: I am talking about the Lenihans, the Andrews, the founding fathers of the party.

They were never comfortable with the almost out-of-control exuberance of the new elite, because, I would say, the new elite directly challenged the old orthodoxy -- the old elite -- with its smug sense of authority within the establishment, and in society more generally.

Garret FitzGerald, the former Fine Gael leader, is also steeped in this old elite background. He made a reappearance last week -- a sort of kindly grand-father figure whose words of wisdom on economic matters are given far more credibility than his record would merit when he was actually relevant, that is, from 1982 to 1987. Garret FitzGerald's record in government is negligible economic growth and large-scale unemployment.

Last week he was given a platform by RTE, and the Irish Times,

to call for tax increases, a suggestion which removed from the agenda the debate on proper reform of the public service, and which has, somehow, now become almost a fait accompli.

Certainly it has become so among the old elite, as represented by the Irish Times; and also among the former communists and socialists who, in that tired old mantra, want to "tax the rich!", a mantra recently espoused by Garret's daughter-in-law, Eithne FitzGerald, on the Tasc website of Irish Times columnist Fintan O'Toole.

Tasc, if you didn't know, is a left-wing "think tank" which has effectively become the originator of policy for Eamon Gilmore's Labour Party, and whose influence is stretching far and is likely to stretch further still in this new dispensation.

In part, Garret was a man of his time. Through his constitutional crusade, he did a lot of preparatory work which helped alter the social face of Ireland.

But if he thinks tax increases are the way to go, when a bloated public service at large is coming down with a comfortable middle management tier, then on economic matters he is as mistaken now as he was then, when he was deeply unpopular with the public.

I am of the view, though it is not trendy to say so, that Garret FitzGerald was the greatest mistake Fine Gael ever made, needlessly shifting the party, as he did, from the conservative, though socially just era of Liam Cosgrave, to take power with a young Dick Spring of old Labour.

Fine Gael, ever since, has remained mired in that unsuccessful mindset, the ditching of its conservative founding principles for the achievement of power.

The irony is that, having bent over backwards to accommodate Labour, it is now running the risk of becoming irrelevant to the populist new Labour Party and its mixed bag of comrades.

Gilmore, already more popular than Cowen, has the irredeemably lame-duck Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, in his sights.

In Fine Gael this weekend, senior people are talking about removing Kenny as leader -- or, rather, are hoping that he will remove himself, the thirst for blood in the party no longer as desperate.

But gone they want him, make no mistake. Kenny knows it, too, which is why, in recent weeks and months, he has relegated his Finance spokesman Richard Bruton to the role of bit player, hoping to stymie the one clear and present threat to his leadership. Enda Kenny has been issuing statements on economic matters without the knowledge, let alone the imprimateur, of his Finance spokesman.

Something in Fine Gael is going to give, and soon, perhaps even before the elections in June.

Kenny's inevitable removal, or withdrawal, may or may not contribute to the future direction of his party. Richard Bruton may be good on economics, but the book is still open on whether he has the wherewithal to reassert Fine Gael's dominance. I would not bet that he has. I expect that task will fall to the next generation in Fine Gael.

There is time still, of course, for Fianna Fail to re-emerge -- and neither would I bet against it doing so.

But the next government will be Labour, one way or the other: in coalition with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, with Sinn Fein making up the numbers as required.

Fianna Fail would prefer Opposition to minority partnership, which would be a breach of a core value too far.

Fine Gael, in its current form, will take what it is offered, probably some form of shambolic revolving Taoiseach type of thing.

There is no doubt, though, where the axis of power will rest.

It will rest with Gilmore and Jack O'Connor and his cabal, cheered on by elements in the Irish Times and RTE, a hard-left coterie which will have as much influence in pulling Gilmore back to his roots as the PDs and Charlie McCreevy had in taking Fianna Fail in the opposite direction.