Wetter, warmer and wild times lie ahead
IRELAND can expect to see average temperatures rise by over three degrees by the end of the century as a consequence of global warming, Met Eireann warned yesterday.
Storm surges will batter the west coast, flooding and cyclones will become commonplace and it will be 25pc wetter in autumn and winter because of greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change.
And while there is "considerable uncertainty" about the accuracy of long-term predictions, temperatures have already risen by one degree, they will rise by another 2.4, and average daily temperatures could be four degrees higher by 2100 than today.
The warning was issued by Met Eireann director Declan Murphy, who said average temperatures had steadily risen since the 1980s.
"There's a great deal of variation year on year, averaged over the year," he said. "Temperatures peaked in the 1940s, then dropped, and since the 1980s, it's steadily increased to temperatures we've never seen before and our records go back over 100 years. It's quite a strong signal that something's happening. There's been a reduction in days where air temperatures have dropped below zero. There's an underlying trend of a reduction of 20 days, which is quite significant.
"There's been a lengthening of the growing season where temperatures are above five degrees, roughly 25 days year on year."
Using historical data, experts modelled future weather patterns up to the end of the century using a range of different scenarios, including an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
These showed that temperatures would rise significantly by 2100.
Summers
Other findings include:
- Summers and autumns will be 1.2 - 1.4 degrees warmer, most notably in the south and east, with the possibility of a rise of 3.4 degrees.
- It will be 5 - 10pc wetter in the autumn and winter by mid-century, and up to 25pc by 2100. Summers will be 10 - 18pc drier.
- There will be an overall decline in wind speeds, and sea warming will accelerate, impacting on marine ecology. River temperatures will also rise, affecting trout and salmon.
"By the end of the century, the annual average temperature will have risen three degrees, it could be more, up to four degrees, and we're already one degree along that road," Mr Murphy said.
Rising sea temperatures of two degrees will result in the frequency of very intense cyclones affecting Ireland, with ensuing storm damage and flooding. Storm surges will also increase, particularly along the west coast, but the south coast will largely escape the worst effects.
- Paul Melia
