Undecideds now biggest bloc ahead of treaty vote
Poll shows Yes camp will have to make a huge effort in final days
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THE Undecideds -- those who have not yet made up their minds -- are now the biggest group of voters, with just four days to go to the Lisbon Referendum vote.
A Sunday Independent Quantum Research poll carried out on Thursday night shows some improvement in the Yes vote which now stands at 34 per cent, compared with 27 per cent who say they will vote No, but the largest single grouping (35 per cent) are the Don't Knows.
Those who say they will stay away from the polls came to only 4 per cent, which suggests a higher than usual turnout for a referendum, although this does not rule out the possibility of those who do turn out using the ballot as a protest vote against the Government's handling of the current economic slump.
This means the establishment Yes coalition, led by Taoiseach Brian Cowen, will have to make a huge effort to convert those who are still wavering. Only 13 per cent said they would be influenced by the parties or people advocating a Yes or No vote -- 15 per cent in urban areas and 17 per cent among men. This means Mr Cowen cannot rely on the electorate taking his word or the word of his fellow campaigners that a Yes vote is the right thing to do.
Detailed answers to the questions that are concerning the electorate on different issues arising from the treaty are obviously now required. Nor can he realistically hope that people will be turned off voting No because they do not wish to be on the same side as Sinn Fein and some of the other proponents of a No vote.
Some of the issues which will need to be addressed were highlighted by respondents in the poll. National sovereignty was mentioned by 17 per cent (19 per cent urban, and 18 per cent among female respondents); Neutrality was the main issue for 18 per cent (20 per cent urban and 20 per cent female); Irish agriculture was a concern for only 12 per cent (16 per cent rural and 14 per cent male); Workers' rights, 21 per cent (24 per cent female); while 19 per cent said they did not have concerns about any of these issues.
The nationwide telephone poll was carried out by Quantum Research using questions prepared by the Sunday Independent editorial team. A total 500 homes were contacted randomly.
Respondents who have made up their minds reflected the disparity of opinion between the two sides: "A Yes vote is imperative if we want to streamline the way the Union works, it has become unwieldy and there are plenty of safeguards in there to make sure they do not interfere with the day-to-day running of the State," said one city male.
"I do not want to see Irish men and women fighting wars in a European army at the behest of the English, Germans and French," said a country male.
Another rural-based male said: "If the Dutch can vote No then so can we. It's a bad deal for smaller countries like ourselves. It takes the power out of our hands and gives it to the big boys."
A city female said: "The EU has been nothing but good for us. A vote of No now would be utterly stupid and counter to our best national interests."
A male city dweller said: "I'm voting No because all the mainstream politicians are telling me to vote Yes. I don't want their opinions rammed down my throat."
And a rural female said: "Of course they want us to vote Yes because that way they can all go over there and get another easy job and a fat pension to line their own wallets with."
Meanwhile, Fianna Fail's standing with the electorate remains strong at 45 per cent, down only 1 per cent from our last poll in May. Fine Gael are up slightly from 21 to 23 per cent; Labour 12 per cent (11 per cent in May); Greens 5 per cent (7 per cent); Sinn Fein 3 per cent (2 per cent); PDs 2 per cent (1 per cent); Independents 3 per cent (3 per cent); and Don't Knows 7 per cent (9 per cent).
Brian Cowen's personal satisfaction rating is down since May -- 70 per cent (79 per cent). Last month his satisfaction rating was highest among women (82 per cent). That is now down to 69 per cent. But he is still by far the most popular political leader.
"He seems solid enough, the transition has been managed very well so far," said a city male.
But a city female said: "I have to say, I'm a little disappointed, I was expecting more from him, but maybe that's just because I liked Bertie so much." A country female said: "The thing is, he was the Minster for Finance, he knows the ins and the outs. If anyone can lead us through the bad times it's him."
And a country male said: "He has been complacent on the treaty and should have been giving far more of a lead on the importance of the issues and how they might effect the Irish people."
Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating has improved slightly -- 41 per cent (37 per cent). His weakest area of support in May was among women voters (34 per cent), but that has now improved to 42 per cent; and in the rural constituencies he has gone from 35 per cent to 46 per cent.
"He seems like a decent man, very honest, but that is not what it takes to be a good politician," said a city female.
"Dreadful, dreary Enda, when are we going to get a decent Opposition in this country?," asked a city male.
Eamon Gilmore's popularity has slumped too since May -- 55 per cent (60 per cent). His biggest drop was among male voters, from 61 per cent to 51 per cent.
"Gilmore is doing well, he is articulate and gets his message across unlike his predecessor who seemed more interested in being a smart alec," said a city female.
John Gormley is down 10 percentage points from 63 per cent to 53 per cent, with support seeming to fall away in all categories.
'The Greens and Gormley have been very impressive so far, much better than you would have expected. I thought they would come in, ban cars and make everyone live in teepees," said a city male.
"Gormley has fallen right into bed with the Fianna Failers," said a rural female.
Gerry Adams is up by 2 percentage points from 38 per cent to 40 per cent. "I live in a Sinn Fein constituency and they would never get my vote, but their councillors are the ones on the doorsteps, doing the graft, solving local issues. They do a good job. I just do not like what they stand for," said a rural female.
And the PDs' Ciaran Cannon, is still the leader with the lowest satisfaction rating, down from 31 per cent in May to just 26 per cent last week.
"They picked the wrong leader, they should have went for Fiona O'Malley," said a city female.
- WILLIE KEALY
