Swine-flu deaths are now 'inevitable' here
• 205 cases diagnosed in Ireland • vaccine due 'in autumn'
Ireland is expected to begin receiving more then seven million doses of a swine flu vaccine from the autumn, but cases will increase when schools return with deaths from the flu now seen as "inevitable".
The latest figures from the Department of Health show there are 11 newly confirmed cases, bringing the number of laboratory confirmed cases to 205, including 28 in-country transmission cases.
The HSE said yesterday that a vaccine was expected to be available later this year when it is tested and licensed for use in Ireland, and it would then be delivered in regular batches over a number of months.
Doctors have been told in a letter from the Department of Health and the HSE that studies of previous pandemics suggest a much larger wave of infection, with more illness and death, in the autumn and winter of this year.
Dr Tony Holohan, the State's Chief Medical Officer, and Dr Patrick Dooley, the director of population health at the HSE, said in a letter to doctors that most planning scenarios have focussed on a "clinical attack rate of 25 per cent which would equate to approximately one million cases in Ireland".
The transmission of the virus would become more favourable in the autumn when schools returned but they said that in the coming months Ireland would begin to take delivery of pandemic vaccine, with 7.7 million doses to be delivered over a period of six to 12 months.
Highest-risk groups and essential workers, including heath care workers, will be the first to be vaccinated.
However, medical sources said yesterday that deaths in Ireland were now "inevitable" from swine flu. The two doctors maintained, however, that Ireland was well prepared for the flu pandemic. But they admitted that an infection rate of 25 per cent, even with mostly mild cases, would generate sufficient deaths to place "significant strain on family doctors, hospitals and intensive care facilities".
In a new approach, from the middle of this month GPs will treat only certain categories of patients suffering from the flu, and they will decide which patients need treatment. Most patients will have mild symptoms and will not need any anti-viral medication and will recover by staying home, drinking plenty of fluids and taking paracetamol, the Health Protection Surveillance Centre said.
The new approach is one of "mitigation", minimising the impact of the flu virus, rather then "containment" or limiting the spread of the virus.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said some 160 countries have now reported infections and about 800 people have died from the virus.
The WHO said the H1N1 flu virus is starting to infect older people and pregnant women, and the obese are at highest risk.
The UN agency said school-age children remain most affected by the virus. "For the moment we haven't seen any change in the behaviour of the virus," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said.
However, he warned that the virus could change as it circulates, especially in flu conductive wintry conditions.
- Don Lavery
