Public No to Nama 'bail-out for banks'
POLL: Sceptical majority would prefer to see the banks nationalised
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Sunday August 02 2009
The public is deeply sceptical about Nama, the Government's proposed 'bad bank', according to a Sunday Independent/Quantum Research telephone poll.
An overwhelming majority believe the Nama concept to be nothing other than another a bail-out for the banks and builders and expect the taxpayer will never get a financial return.
A clear majority, 60 per cent, also say they would prefer the banks be nationalised, a possible alternative solution which the Government seems ideologically opposed to.
The findings will come as a blow to the Government which had hoped that, after months of preparation, the public would support its plan to deal with what is the biggest banking crisis internationally since the Savings & Loans scandal hit the US in the 1990s.
But within days of publication of what is regarded as one of the most important pieces of proposed legislation in the history of the State, the public has expressed huge doubt as to whether the Government's plan will provide a solution.
Full poll details, page 20 Analysis, page 21, 22,23,28,36
As a result, the poll of 500 people nationwide has also found that the public is increasingly dissatisfied with the way the Taoiseach is doing his job. A massive 78 per cent are now unhappy with Mr Cowen's leadership, up a staggering 36 points in a year and up five points since the public were last asked to rate the Taoiseach's performance in April.
The Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, who is currently enjoying a more favourable media profile than the Taoiseach, will not be comforted by a finding that a significant 66 per cent are dissatisfied with how he is doing his job.
But it is clear that the Government as a whole will have a difficult job in convincing the public that Nama is the correct way to resolve the country's banking crisis.
Perhaps the most surprising finding is that 60 per cent of those polled say they would prefer nationalisation of the banks to Nama (40 per cent) as a solution to problems in the banking sector.
Mr Lenihan last week announced Nama, the Government's plan for dealing with up to €90bn of risky loans on the books of the country's banks. The possibility remains that this figure will eventually be exceeded.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s it was estimated that it could cost around $30bn to $50bn to clean up the stricken Savings & Loan industry in the US. The final underwriting bill to the financial industry and taxpayer eventually came in at around $150bn.
Asked by a Sunday Independent/Quantum Research team who they believed would benefit most from Nama, a significant majority (65 per cent) said the banks, 27 per cent said property developers, while only eight per cent felt that taxpayers would ultimately benefit.
A huge 83 per cent felt the taxpayer would never get a financial return from Nama.
The most clear-cut finding emerged when the public was asked if there should be more transparency about the nature and extent of the debts for which Nama will make the taxpayer liable: 94 per cent want more transparency.
The level of scepticism among the public in relation to Nama is tangible. In fact, 85 per cent thought that Nama was "another bail-out for the banks".
A slightly less, though still significant, 80 per cent felt Nama was a "bail-out for builders and developers".
Within Government there is a belief that it is at last getting on top of the economic crisis. The recent rolling out of the McCarthy report, the proposed Nama legislation, and with a report by the Commission on Taxation to come next month, there is satisfaction in Government that it is at least illustrating how the economy may be rescued.
But the public clearly disagrees, as our telephone poll shows. The Taoiseach, Mr Cowen will be disappointed, if also phlegmatic. His ratings have fallen consistently in every poll in which his leadership has been queried.
The public has consistently pointed to a perceived "lack of decisiveness" in the face of major crises; a "lack of leadership"; "arrogance" and an "unwillingness to accept the blame for past mistakes" while he was finance minister.
There is also a widely held belief that the Government is making major policy decisions which favour the banks and property developers rather than the general welfare of the public as a whole.
One person polled said of Mr Cowen: "There is no sense of anyone being in control, no sense of purpose or hope. The country just seems to be sliding over the edge while he stands by and does nothing."
Within political circles, the stock of Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has been rising in recent times, culminating this week in the publication of the Nama legislation.
While the public is more satisfied with Mr Lenihan than it is with Mr Cowen, it remains deeply dissatisfied with the Finance Minister.
According to the pollsters: "There was a feeling amongst respondents that he was not in full control of his brief and that he was somehow in hock to the bankers and the developers and disconnected from the reality of ordinary voters.
"There was some support for Mr Lenihan, with 29 per cent of those polled indicating they were satisfied with his performance. These respondents believed he was capable of making the difficult decisions which were necessary to try and correct the public finances and this was evidenced by the recent decision of international money markets to start reinvesting in Irish Government bonds."
- JODY CORCORAN
