Poll: Cowen's popularity hits new low
Lisbon 'No' support down by eight per cent as 14 per cent now say they are undecided
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Confidence in Taoiseach Brian Cowen has plummeted dramatically, as the harsh reality of the economic downturn begins to register with the public, according to the latest Sunday Independent/Quantum Research tracker opinion poll.
The research has picked up on the growing mood of disenchantment at perceived Government inaction this month in the face of a crisis which is causing a significant increase in the number of jobs being lost throughout the country.
At a time when the Taoiseach was photographed more regularly on a golf course than at his desk, support for Fianna Fail has also fallen significantly, in tandem with a rise in support for a possible alternative Government.
The only encouraging finding for the Government is a perceptible softening in sentiment towards the Lisbon Treaty. The poll has found that if a referendum were to be held again, 44 per cent would vote 'No' -- a drop of 8 per cent since our last poll four weeks ago; 42 per cent would vote 'Yes', a 1 per cent increase since our last poll; while 14 per cent now say they do not know how they would vote, a 7 per cent increase.
A breakdown of these findings indicates that women voters, in particular, are beginning to re-assess how they would vote in a second referendum; 46 per cent say they would vote 'No', a drop of 10 per cent in a four week period.
The Government last week indicated that a second referendum was more likely than not, as it struggles to find a way out of the impasse caused by the 'No' vote in June.
But after yet another week of gloomy economic indicators, the public has finally run out of patience with the Taoiseach and with Fianna Fail as they continue to enjoy their holidays.
Confidence in Mr Cowen (45 per cent) has dropped 5 points in a month, and is now down a staggering 34 points since he was elected Taoiseach in May. He suffered a big drop in support among men (38 per cent), down 11 points, and among rural voters (46 per cent), down 6 points.
Support for Fianna Fail (36 per cent) has dropped 6 points since our last poll at the beginning of August -- representing a significant shift in attitude towards Mr Cowen's party.
FULL POLL DETAILS, PAGE 2
In our last four tracking polls, support for Fianna Fail had held relatively steady, even as confidence in Mr Cowen declined. Fianna Fail is losing support, particularly among men, where it is down 10 points to 34 per cent.
In relation to Mr Cowen, Quantum Research recorded the following comments among those polled:
Urban female: "He should be back in the Dail sorting out the country's problems, not off playing golf."
Rural male: "I still think he is the man for the job, but he would really want to start moving. He hasn't got much time or goodwill left."
Urban male: "Cowen has been a real disappointment -- and I'm a FF supporter. He just seems to be hiding away from things, I wonder if he has the bottle for the job at all."
Support for Fine Gael (23 per cent) is up 2 points; Labour (12 per cent) is up 3 points; and the Greens (6 per cent) are up two points -- all indicating that a possible alternative Rainbow coalition is coming back into favour.
Support for Independents (3 per cent) is down 1 point; for the Progressive Democrats (1 per cent) is unchanged and Sinn Fein ((2 per cent) is down 2 points.
However, all party leaders have suffered a drop in satisfaction, showing the public's displeasure at their lengthy holiday as the country lurches deeper into economic crisis.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny (31 per cent) is down 4 points; Labour leader Eamon Gilmore (41 per cent) is down 8 points; Green Party leader John Gormley (45 per cent) is down 4 points; Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams (28 per cent) is down 2 points; and the PD leader, Ciaran Cannon (13 per cent), is down 5 points.
The only bright note for the Government, and indeed the mainstream parties, is a shift in sentiment towards the Lisbon Treaty, with a softening of attitude among some of those who voted 'No' in the referendum.
Closer analysis shows the number of women now willing to vote 'No' stands at 46 per cent, down 10 points, although the 'No' support among men (46 per cent) has dropped 5 points. Rural voters (46 per cent), are also much less likely to vote 'No', down 9 points.
Uncertainty has returned to the voting pattern with a big increase in the 'Don't Know' figure. Four weeks ago, only 5 per cent of rural respondents recorded a 'Don't Know'. This figure has now tripled to 15 per cent. Men are more likely to be undecided, recording a figure of 13 per cent, up 8 points.
Last week Mr Cowen said he has not ruled out the prospect of holding a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
Speaking to reporters in Galway, he said it was a matter that the Government would consider in due course, but he added that discussions were not at that point yet.
"The point of discussion we are at, at the moment, is examining the outcome of the referendum ... obviously there will be a lot of meetings with EU colleagues between now and the end of the year. So it's not just a matter for our own personal consideration, or national consideration; it is a matter we have to discuss with colleagues as well," he said.
Minister of State for European Affairs Dick Roche provoked controversy last week by saying a second referendum would "ultimately" be required and that ratifying key elements by legislation was not a viable option.
Mr Roche later defended his remarks, saying it was his personal belief that a second Lisbon vote may be necessary.
The Government has so far tried to play down the controversy surrounding Mr Roche's remarks, insisting that talk of a second referendum was premature.
But 'No' campaigners claim that Mr Roche's comments expose the Government's secret plans on Lisbon.
Last week it also emerged that senior Irish officials had met their Danish counterparts in Copenhagen earlier this month to get advice on how Ireland could opt out of significant provisions of Lisbon to resolve the impasse created by the June referendum.
The Danish government responded to the rejection of the Maastricht Treaty by its electorate in 1992 by coming up with a proposal to opt out of four key areas of EU activity. A second Danish referendum in 1993 approved the treaty in tandem with the proposal to opt out of the euro, as well as defence, justice and common EU citizenship arrangements established under Maastricht.
- JODY CORCORAN
