No Budget miracle in sight for embattled Government
A new poll shows a decisive swing away from Fianna Fail and indicates that any election would be Fine Gael's to lose
If the Government had hoped that, by some miracle, the latest Budget would mark a turnaround in its fortunes, it will be sorely disappointed by the latest Sunday Inde- pendent/Quantum Research telephone poll of 500 people nationwide.
Conducted on Friday, the poll has found that, since the Budget, a massive 72 per cent are less satisfied that the Government has a workable plan to lead us out of recession with just 28 per cent more satisfied, in effect, that wholesale tax increases are the way to go.
The Government had been clinging to the admittedly remote possibility that the electorate would come to recognise it had got a grip on things, and, therefore, that it would accept the medicine dished in the Budget earlier this month. No chance.
In the words of our pollsters: "People thought that massive issues such as public sector reform had been ignored. Others complained that the deflationary nature of many of the measures would only deepen the malaise and were at a loss as to why the Government made no attempt to stimulate growth by, for example, cutting VAT.
"Respondents were not confident that the new agency NAMA would serve the best interests of the public, and felt that generations of taxpayers could end up footing the bill for the excesses of developers and bankers."
Most intriguingly, the poll has found a general shift of public opinion into what is called the "Don't Know" category, which means, yet again, this poll might have more significance for the Fine Gael leader than anybody else.
The personal satisfaction rating of the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, has dropped 15 points since the last such poll was conducted in January, a trajectory he has come to expect by now: just 20 per cent are now satisfied at the way in which Mr Cowen is doing his job, with 73 per cent dissatisfied.
Enda Kenny, meanwhile, is still struggling to make a definitive breakthrough: his satisfaction rating (33 per cent), while considerably higher than the Taoiseach's, is actually down two points since January.
Interestingly, though, the Fine Gael leader's dissatisfaction rating (56 per cent), is also down, by four points, with the number of people now unsure of Mr Kenny (11 per cent) up a substantial six points. Mr Kenny, therefore, is entering a crucial test of his leadership in the run-up to the local and European elections in June. He is, you might say, in the last chance saloon.
The electorate, many of whom had already decided on Mr Kenny, seem to be now, tentatively, having another look, a move borne out of a successful ard fheis for Fine Gael, but primarily the result of frustration with the Gov- ernment's handling of the economy.
Eamon Gilmore, the Labour leader, meanwhile, is continuing to make hay. Since January, his popularity has increased a substantial seven points to 65 per cent, leaving him by far the most successful political leader, although Labour itself seems to have reached a peak.
The Green Party leader, John Gormley, remains substantially untouched by the unpopularity of the Government of which he is a member. His satisfaction rating (38 per cent) is down just one point.
The Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams (27 per cent) is down four points, in contrast to growing support for his party, and perhaps reflecting a view that the time has come for a shake-up at the top of Sinn Fein if it wants to make inroads.
To put a tin hat on it for Brian Cowen, Fianna Fail (23 per cent) are down five points; Fine Gael (26 per cent) are down a point; Greens (three per cent) are up a point and Labour (18 per cent) are unchanged.
The beneficiary seems to be Sinn Fein (five per cent), up three points: again, though, there has been a marked increase in the number of people who now say they do not know who they would give their first preference vote to, at 21 per cent, also up three points.
These findings reflect the likelihood that there is a shift in public mood, most definitely, and perhaps definitively, away from Brian Cowen and Fianna Fail, but where to we can not yet be certain. For Fine Gael, and Enda Kenny, well, it is theirs only to lose.
The only good news for the Government is that the new-found support for the Lisbon Treaty is remaining relatively solid. In December last year 39 per cent said they would vote Yes and 37 per cent said they would vote No; that moved dramatically in January to Yes (55 per cent) and No (30 per cent), while the number who said they did not know dropped nine points to 15 per cent: this latest poll has found voting intentions as follows: Yes (54 per cent), No (24 per cent) and Don't Know (22 per cent), an increase of seven points among the undecided.
Political Analysis, Pages 25, 26, 27 & 36
- JODY CORCORAN
