FF hits new poll low but Lisbon looks like a 'Yes'
Party still sliding but Cowen's popularity shows a slight lift
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THE popularity of the Taoiseach has shown a marginal upswing to 23 per cent in the latest Sunday Independent /Quantum Research poll, carried out on Friday, but Fianna Fail continues to slide and now sits at an historically low 14 per cent.
A number of television and newspaper interviews in recent weeks may have contributed to Mr Cowen's slightly improved position.
Crucial issues facing the Government also offer some comfort, with those polled divided 50/50 on Nama and those who say they would vote 'Yes' in the Lisbon Treaty referendum rising to 63 per cent compared with 54 per cent in April, 55 per cent last January and 39 per cent last December.
The proportion of those polled who say they will vote 'No' amounts to 15 per cent, with 22 per cent in the 'Don't Know' category. The result shows a steady decline in opposition to the treaty.
The figures for the 'No' camp have been falling steadily over the past nine months -- 37 per cent in December last, 30 per cent in January and 24 per cent in April.
On the treaty, one woman said: "Last time I voted 'No' but that's because I thought we could afford to do so. Now I have changed my mind because I know we can't."
And a male respondent remarked: "We have to vote 'Yes' -- it would be suicide if we don't. Who wants to go back to the Ireland of the Fifties?"
Public opinion on the forthcoming Budget would also seem to be in line with government thinking, based on recent statements by Mr Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.
Asked should the Budget concentrate more on cutting public spending rather than on tax increases, 73 per cent said Yes, with only 27 per cent favouring an emphasis on the implementation of the latest proposals from the Taxation Commission.
On the Budget proposals, one man said: "Cut pay for the higher earners in the public service but leave those at the lower grades alone."
Another said: "The waste and sense of 'entitlement' that seems to go hand in hand with working in the public service is nauseating. It is people like me who work in the private sector who pay their wages. Who do they think they are?''
The 50 per cent support for Nama is probably as much as the Government could have hoped for, given the massed opposition from all the other main political parties and many economists, and this showing may have been helped by last week's Green Party-inspired amendments to the Nama legislation by Mr Lenihan.
Even so, a female respondent said: "Look who is selling this thing to us-- the Government who got us into the mess. And then look who wants us to buy it -- the banks. Really it's a no-brainer.''
But one man said: "We have no other options, it is the only show in town."
The popularity of Fianna Fail has shown a steady decline in the past year -- 36 per cent in August '08, 28 per cent in Jan '09, and 23 per cent last April. But today's result is even worse than the shocking position shown in the recent Irish Times poll (16 per cent).
As for the Taoiseach, his latest showing at 23 per cent is better than the Irish Times poll figures (15 per cent) following his interviews in the Sunday Independent, on The Late Late Show and on RTE's Prime Time.
And it also compares favourably with our last poll in April when he had only 20 per cent support. But one male respondent said of the Taoiseach: "Just because he shows his face on the national airwaves doesn't prove anything. Where has he been for the last 12 months? It's too little, too late."
Support for Fine Gael now stands at 25 per cent (26 per cent in April, 27 per cent in January, and 23 per cent in August '08). Labour at 20 per cent is up from 18 per cent in both the April and January '09 results and from 12 per cent in August '08.
The Greens stand at 4 per cent (3 per cent last April, 2 per cent last January and 6 per cent in August '08).
Sinn Fein have 5 per cent support (5 per cent in April last, 2 per cent in January and 2 per cent in August '08). Support for Independents at 6 per cent is up (4 per cent in April, 5 per cent in January and 3 per cent in August '08). Those with no opinion stood at 26 per cent. Enda Kenny's popularity is down slightly at 29 per cent. Those dissatisfied amount to 59 per cent with 12 per cent having no opinion.
But Eamon Gilmore remains the most popular party leader at 56 per cent -- not as high a rating as he had last April (65 per cent) or in January (58 per cent) but improved from August '08 (41 per cent). .
John Gormley's rating stands at 28 per cent, the culmination of a steady decline over the past year. Those dissatisfied with Mr Gormley stand at 60 per cent.
Gerry Adams has a satisfaction rating of 15 per cent -- down from 27 per cent in April, 31 per cent in January and 28 per cent in August '08. Those dissatisfied amounted to 72 per cent.
We contacted 500 households across the country for this latest survey.
- Willie Kealy
