Dole queue surges past 200,000 mark and worse is yet to come
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UNEMPLOYMENT has reached heights not seen in almost 10 years with the number of people signing on smashing the 200,000 mark.
It is the highest figure since 1999 and economists warned things are set to get worse with the figure rising to 230,000 in the next six months.
Fine Gael said it could get as bad as in the 1980s.
New figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show the seasonally adjusted numbers on the Live Register increased from 199,700 in April to 207,300 in May. In the year to May, there was a jump of 47,746 (31pc) in the numbers signing on. The slowdown in the construction sector is also starkly evident with more than three times (36,847) as many men joining the register as women (10,899).
However, a near-even number of men and women lost their jobs last month, indicating that the construction slowdown is being felt across the economy.
Jim Power, economist with Friends First, said the Government will have to take long term action to reverse the trend. He also warned that it will spread to areas such as the retail and services sectors as the ripple effect spreads. "Things are going to get significantly worse over the next 12 months," he said.
"And the numbers could easily reach 225,000 or 230,000 by the end of the year."
Spending
He said in the short term there is little can be done -- but the Government now needs to reign in spending in some areas and boost it in others.
"The delivery of the National Development Plan is essential but they will need to keep wage demands as low as possible. Spending will have to be controlled and monitored in a way that has not been seen in the past decade."
Fine Gael said the situation was reaching crisis point and warned that the dark days of the 1980s were returning. "The Government claims rising unemployment is an international phenomenon, but job losses are actually falling across most of Europe," said TD Leo Varadkar.
"The Republic used to have one of the lowest unemployment rates in Europe, but now has a bigger unemployment problem than 11 other EU countries, including the UK. These figures should be setting off alarm bells in the Government."
He called for an overhaul of FAS, the State training agency, which spends over €1bn a year but which he claims produces "limited results". He also called for a renewed focus on restoring competitiveness by reducing the cost of doing business and of taking on new employees.
Labour Party spokesman on Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Willie Penrose said now is the time for the Government to step up the school building programme and bring back some construction work.
Disparity
The figures show regional disparity with the largest percentage increase in the south-east where there was an increase of 4.3pc in the month compared to an increase of 1.1pc in the south-west. The largest county increases were in Carlow (7.9pc) and Tipperary North (7pc). The figures dropped in Kerry by 2.4pc and by 0.5pc in Louth. In the year, there was a 22pc jump in Dublin and in the midlands the increase was 40pc.
Live Register figures include part-time workers, seasonal and casual workers, while the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) lists those out of work who have taken specific steps to find a job.
Lynsey Clemenger, economist with Ulster Bank, said the Live Register is an important forward indicator and warned the next QNHS figures will show an increase in the number of unemployed. "Taking the first five months of 2008 together, the numbers signing-on have increased by 35,700," she said.
"The increase over the same period on 2007 was a mere 3,000, illustrating the extent of the deterioration in the labour market thus far in 2008."
She said it is likely that the female-dominated services sector will suffer more job losses.
