IT is make or break time for Brian Lenihan, the embattled Finance Minister. On Tuesday, he has to go to the Cabinet and detail the grim reality of the nation's coffers.

The gloomy ministers know well that bad news is coming -- they can see their departmental budgets vanishing before their eyes. But between now and December, Lenihan somehow has to find a way to balance the books. On Wednesday, he will make his mid-term review findings public, but the writing is already on the wall.

Last Tuesday, the ESRI made the official pronouncement that the country is in recession, with the economy to contract by almost a half of one per cent in 2008. Economists predict an Exchequer deficit of up to €7bn by year's end. Compared to the €5.2bn surplus in 2006, during which the economy grew by over six per cent, it is a frightening turnaround.

Mr Lenihan has ruled out breaking the EU borrowing limits of three per cent of GDP to cover the collapse in tax revenues, which means one thing. Cutbacks, cutbacks, and more cutbacks.

He may not have a choice but to borrow. Three per cent of Ireland's GDP of €198bn is roughly €6bn. The Department of Finance has confirmed that we will borrow at least €5.5bn this year, and we are only half way through the year.

Last December, the General Government Deficit was targeted at €1.845bn or 0.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The €1.166bn tax shortfall suffered so far would raise the Government deficit to more than €3bn, equivalent to 1.5 per cent of GDP. Next Wednesday's half-year figures are expected to continue the downward tax take, meaning that breaching the three per cent borrowing limit is quickly becoming a possibility.

June 2007 seems like a long time ago now. The ambitious Programme for Government announced by Bertie Ahern, Trevor Sargent and Mary Harney now lies in tatters. Predicated on an average growth rate of 4.5 per cent, it is clear there is now absolutely no way the Government's spending plans will be met by tax receipts, which at present are in freefall.

Key aspects in the Programme for Government, as well as the €184bn National Development Plan and Transport 21, are now in doubt. Not only that, but the downturn in the economy has already led to a culling of many front-line services and projects across many sectors like health, education, transport, and communications.

Today, we identify some key projects and services which are being, or will be axed as a result of the recession in this country.

HEALTH

In the Programme for Government, health was to be one of the biggest monetary beneficiaries, in addition to the annual €14bn spend on the health service. The vicious cutbacks in health implemented last year are set to worsen and intensify as Lenihan gets tough with his cabinet colleagues.

Last week, the Sunday Independent learned that a series of cost-cutting memos were sent by senior managers in the HSE to their subordinates ruling out any additional spend, particularly on overtime and cover for absent workers.

"They are micro-managing, to the point where approval has to be given to get additional stationery. It's ridiculous. Rather than tackling the beast of bureaucracy they have created, the vulnerable, the old, and the weak are being punished, and are dying as a result," said Jan O'Sullivan, who is Labour's spokeswoman on health.

The new cost-cutting ethos, on top of the cutbacks from last year, has resulted in operations and many front-line services being axed with immediate effect. For example, beds in key hospitals like the National Rehabilitation Hospital in Dun Laoghaire have been closed off due to lack of cover. CT scans in regional hospitals like Ennis have been cancelled because there is no-one to operate the machines.

This follows the cancelling of respite support care in various parts of the country -- for instance, Galway -- in recent weeks, and a lengthening list of horror stories from around the country. One medical card holder, Elaine Grehan from Louth, who went for a ultrasound scan, was forced to pay €80 because the HSE had to bring an external person in to perform the scan.

Elsewhere, the closures of day centres for the elderly in Wicklow, St Mary's in Mullingar, and the Birr Community Nursing Unit, are some of the latest instances of the cuts, which are leaving many of Ireland's weakest and most vulnerable without adequate care.

The Programme for Government promised a €2.1bn injection for primary care development, greater medical card access, a €2.4 acute hospital capital programme, 1,500 extra beds, 2,000 extra consultants, reduced waiting times, greater hygiene control, and a roll-out of a national cancer strategy. Sources within the Department of Health said last week that all were likely to be axed, or at least delayed significantly.

EDUCATION

Education is another area where the cuts are already being felt. The Government has already failed to meet its own targets on class sizes. In the Programme for Government, it was promised that 4,000 extra teachers would be introduced, helping to reduce the pupil-teacher ratios. These are now in doubt. It was also promised that €4.5bn would be given for upgrading existing schools and the building of new schools.

However, the Sunday Independent has learned of several school projects that have been cancelled by the Department of Education within the past seven days. For example, Our Lady's School in Templeogue, Dublin, had its school extension, which was 10 years in the planning, axed at the 11th hour by Batt O'Keeffe's department.

Principal Grainne Friel has sent a heated letter to parents and local TD Olivia Mitchell, calling on them to protest the decision.

It is one of 20 projects that have been halted at the last minute due to the cutbacks.

Fine Gael's Brian Hayes has said other cutbacks include the loss of the summer job scheme, and the €252m investment in school computer infrastructure.

TRANSPORT

The capital investment part of Transport 21 and the NDP is an issue of major concern to the country's builders, who are not having a very good time of it at present. Despite guarantees from Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his Finance Minister, many of the big construction firms are convinced several of the transport projects will be delayed considerably. While much of the current round of motorway projects, like the M50 upgrade, will be completed this year or early next year, it is feared many of the next round are to be put on the long finger due to the revenue shortfall.

Of the €34bn promised in Transport 21, several key projects, like the Metro North and West, are now in danger of being axed.

It was reported last week that Metro North is to be axed, which has concerned residents and business owners in North Dublin who have made plans based around the line being built. Many of the regional rail upgrade projects are also now thought to be in jeopardy, including the Western rail link.

Tom Parlon, of the Construction Industry Federation, has warned that any delay is dangerous, and would have a devastating negative impact on the country's progress. Parlon and his officials are to meet Mr Lenihan in the coming weeks.

ARTS/SPORTS

Brian Cowen personally vetoed a €184m swimming pool project scheme included in the NDP in his last few days as minister for finance, it has emerged. There is no plan in place for its implementation at this time.

Several other projects, like the new Abbey Theatre, a €20m redevelopment of the national archives, a €45m development of the national library and even the redevelopment of Leinster House, are to be delayed also.

COMMUNICATIONS/ TRAINING

The roll-out of the national broadband scheme and the development of Ireland's telecommunications network is also set to fall victim to the range of cutbacks.

This will, according to Simon Coveney of Fine Gael, have a devastating impact on Ireland's progress.

The Programme for Government committed €7.7bn for training and skills development through FAS and Enterprise Ireland, but sources have indicated that they are now likely to be delayed or shelved altogether.

These are just some of the effects that the recession will have on this country.

It is clear that many front-line services in health and education in particular are certain to go and go indefinitely. Mr Lenihan will have difficult and hard decisions to make in the coming months, if he is to balance the books.

But it seems likely that the cuts he will enforce will ignore the cosy civil service, and instead worst affect those at the coal face in our hospitals, in our schools, and in our business and service industries.

- Daniel McConnell