Former FF adviser predicts June 5 general election
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Sunday March 15 2009
THE country is facing into 12 weeks of political turmoil, with the potential of civil unrest and a strong possibility of a general election on June 5, according to veteran political analyst and former Fianna Fail candidate Noel Whelan.
Mr Whelan's pessimistic view that the current administration will cave as a result of the extraordinary pressures that will arise following the emergency budget is surprising because of his links with the main Government party.
His prediction of a local, European and general election all on the same day is based on his belief that the toughest budget in decades will spark public fury and spook Government backbenchers, the Greens and independents into withdrawing support.
"I think the next 12 weeks are going to be some of the most tense weeks in Irish politics, with a budget scheduled at the beginning on April 7 and Easter following after that," said Mr Whelan.
"I think there's a real possibility we will have a general election -- on June 5, actually," he said.
Fears of public anger and political discontent may have been in the mind Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan when settling on April 7 as the date for the budget.
Announcing the cuts and tax increases at the beginning of Easter week will mean there will be little opportunity for attacks in the Dail or spontaneous public protests around the bank holiday weekend and Easter recess.
"I think the sheer intensity of the demands that are going to be upon the Government and that are going to be upon the political system generally are such that we may get to a stage where, because the Government does not have a majority to get that budget passed or because of the level of civil unrest some of the measures in the budget give rise to, the clearest way to clear the decks and get a hold of both financial crisis may be an election," Mr Whelan told TV3's The Political Party.
"Tragically, Northern Ireland has pushed our own economic story down the news agenda this week and people haven't appreciated the significance of some of the developments at the end of last week. It's going to be a massive budget," Mr Whelan added.
"This Government managed to take between €4bn and €4.5bn out of its system in a long, convoluted, difficult process which involved social partnership negotiations and otherwise, between last July and say March 1. I mean, it effectively designed, implemented and took that money out of people's pockets or out of spending programmes beginning from March 1.
"That imposed an awful lot of pressure on the political system. At its height that pressure generated the controversy about the over-70 medical card in October.
"I thought in February things had settled down a bit because the Government had a working 10-vote majority on the votes implementing the public sector pension levy. That was passed through the Dail at the end of February -- but then things changed dramatically.
"Suddenly the Government now has to find another €4.5bn and do it within four weeks -- and then not be sure that that is going to be enough," the former Fianna Fail adviser said.
"Remember this Government's majority is built on three legs -- firstly, it's going to have to make all of its backbenchers stay in line, and that's going to be very difficult when you now consider things like freezing social welfare payments, if not cutting welfare payments or abolishing the Christmas double bonus. You're going to have to consider an addition to additional income taxes that were imposed last October.
"Certainly there will be increases in both the small and top rate -- if not a dramatic increase in the income levy itself. That's going to pressurise backbenchers; it's going to pressurise a couple of independents that are left supporting the Government; and it's going to create difficulties for the Greens.
"Even if on that night of April 7 and in the following days, the Government manages to vote through the legislative changes to give effect to tax changes, the trickle effect of some of spending, particularly in current spending, cuts on things like the health service and otherwise that are going to happen in the following weeks... I just think that there's a possibility it will give rise to circumstances -- and that date, June 5, is going to be like a beacon," Mr Whelan said.
- JEROME REILLY
