Fine Gael storming ahead in vote: poll
Record turnout to reflect public anger; decisive vote against FF
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In a major blow to Taoiseach Brian Cowen's Government, Fine Gael looks set to take both seats in the upcoming by-elections on June 5, according to a Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll.
The first major poll of the two by-election constituencies shows that mounting public anger at the Government's handling of the economy and the "George Lee Effect" are the major reasons for the collapse of the Fianna Fail vote.
In a double setback for Mr Cowen, the results coincide with the news that Independent TD Michael Lowry looks set to withdraw his "strictly conditional" support for the Government if it fails to deliver on its promises to him.
The worst fears of many within Fianna Fail look set to be realised as their candidates in both constituencies are in line for major defeats, with senior figures within the party saying last night that losses in both by-elections are "now very probable".
According to our poll, former RTE economics editor George Lee, FG's candidate in Dublin South, and Senator Paschal Donohoe, the party's candidate in Dublin Central,
Full poll details PAGE 4 Analysis Pages 24, 25, 26, 27
hold commanding leads in their respective races for the Dail, with Fianna Fail and Green candidates polling very badly in both constituencies.
Mr Lee, who received 49 per cent of the vote, has a clear 37-point lead over his nearest rival, Labour's Alex White, who received 12 per cent of first preference votes.
The parachuting of Mr Lee into the historically fickle constituency has proven to be a master stroke for Fine Gael and they will be hoping the 46-year-old economist can avoid any disasters between now and June 5.
Fine Gael's celebrity candidate's arrival has been a major blow to Mr White, who polled poorly. It is clear any impact he had hoped to make as an opposition figure has totally been usurped by Mr Lee.
The poor performance of Shay Brennan, who polled at just 9 per cent, will be a major blow to Fianna Fail. It now looks unlikely that the Brennan name will continue to represent Dublin South.
Mr Lee was at the centre of fresh controversy last night as it emerged that he posed for official Fine Gael poster photographs five days before he told RTE bosses he was running for election.
Lee informed RTE news boss Ed Mulhall of his decision to resign as economics editor only last Tuesday morning but had posed for the photographs the previous Thursday.
Yesterday, senior Fianna Fail party figures were met with mounting public anger on the doorsteps, with one figure describing the reaction as dreadful.
"It's absolutely horrendous on the doorsteps," said one FF senior party member.
In Dublin Central, not even the presence of an Ahern is enough for Fianna Fail to manage better than fourth spot. Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's older brother Maurice received only 10 per cent of the vote.
"It's time for a change, I've voted FF all my life, but not this time, no way," said one male voter. "I can't believe they have picked an Ahern to run," said a female voter.
Fine Gael Senator Paschal Donohoe (28 points) has an eight-point lead over his nearest rival, Senator Ivana Bacik. Maureen O'Sullivan, the Gregory candidate, was two points behind on 18 points.
If he is to be elected, Mr Donohoe will need to poll strongly on first preference as he is likely to suffer from a lack of transfers.
Three hundred homes in each constituency were contacted last Friday night and asked for their first preference candidate. Significantly, it appears there will be a high turn-out on polling day, and the number of undecideds is relatively low for this stage of a campaign.
It looks almost certain that the Government has no chance of taking either seat. If this happens, this will bring its Dail majority down to three, and place increased pressure on the Greens and Jackie Healy Rae to hold the line.
In another major blow to Mr Cowen's position, Independent TD Michael Lowry has said that the Taoiseach can no longer take his support for granted.
Speaking to the Sunday Independent, Mr Lowry said that he will not vote for the next Budget if Finance Minister Brian Lenihan fails to address promises he says were made to him.
"I have already flagged that issues such as child benefit and the range, scope, and equity of property tax will be of significant concern to me."
Former Tanaiste Michael McDowell yesterday refused to comment on reports that he is set for a dramatic return to national politics, standing for Fine Gael at the next general election. A Fine Gael spokesman said the party had no plans for Mr McDowell.
- DANIEL McCONNELL Chief Reporter and JOHN DRENNAN
