FG revolt as knives come out for Kenny
Party looks to Bruton as poll shows support for FF's Lenihan
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Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has lost the confidence of a majority of his frontbench, making it almost inevitable that an attempt will be made to remove him as leader before Leinster House closes for the summer next month.
"The knives are out for Enda," a frontbench TD told the Sunday Independent yesterday. "I expect a move to be made within the next two weeks."
In Fianna Fail, meanwhile, there would not appear to be an imminent threat to the leadership of Taoiseach Brian Cowen, notwithstanding the virtual collapse in support for the party.
A Sunday Independent/ Quantum Research nationwide telephone poll of 500 voters has found, however, that 44 per cent would prefer to see Finance Minister Brian Lenihan lead Fianna Fail.
At least two frontbench Fine Gael TDs, who had been loyal to Mr Kenny, are this weekend understood to have made contact with the Fine Gael finance spokesman, Richard Bruton, to pledge to him their support should he attempt to mount a challenge to Mr Kenny.
Analysis pages 4, 5, 25-29, 36
The Sunday Independent yesterday spoke to four members of the Fine Gael frontbench who said they would support Mr Bruton should he decide to challenge Mr Kenny.
"I like Enda, but the game is up. End of story," one said. Another added: "Ring me in two weeks. If Enda is still leader by then I will eat my socks." Another said: "I've supported Enda before, but I can't any more. Jesus, we're behind Labour. . ." And another said: "This isn't a reaction to an opinion poll. We have had this leadership problem for too long."
However, the Fine Gael health spokesman, Dr James Reilly, who is loyal to Mr Kenny, insisted this weekend: "There are no dark mutterings, and there are no dark doings going on against the Fine Gael leader."
But there is now growing concern within the Fine Gael parliamentary party that sitting TDs could actually lose seats to a buoyant Labour Party, which has leapfrogged them in the opinion polls.
Frontbench spokesmen like Jimmy Deenihan and Denis Naughten, for example, are believed to be under real electoral threat from Labour Party candidates.
The Sunday Independent understands that two frontbench TDs made contact with Mr Bruton following the publication of an opinion poll last week which showed that Fine Gael has dropped four points to a support level of 28 per cent -- four points behind the Labour Party.
All eyes are on Mr Bruton this weekend, therefore, as TDs search for a definite signal that he is prepared to actively seek the leadership of Fine Gael.
Mr Bruton failed to return telephone calls yesterday. He may, however, be encouraged by the findings of the poll which found huge support for his leadership of Fine Gael.
Asked who they would like to see as leader of Fine Gael, respondents said: Richard Bruton (52 per cent); Enda Kenny (21 per cent); Leo Varadkar (11 per cent); Simon Coveney (seven per cent); and Michael Noonan (nine per cent).
The poll also found huge support for Finance Minister Brian Lenihan to replace Taoiseach Brian Cowen as leader of Fianna Fail. Asked who they would like to see lead Fianna Fail, respondents said: Brian Lenihan (44 per cent); Micheal Martin (28 per cent); Brian Cowen (16 per cent); and Dermot Ahern (12 per cent).
Yesterday, however, Mr Lenihan said the Taoiseach had the full confidence of the Fianna Fail party facing into the Dail confidence motion next week. After a difficult week, Mr Cowen may he heartened by another finding in the poll, which showed that the vast majority held the former Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, politically accountable for the country's economic crisis.
Asked which individual politician should bear most of the blame, respondents said: Bertie Ahern (62 per cent); Brian Cowen (27 per cent); Charlie McCreevy (10 per cent); Enda Kenny (one per cent).
Yesterday, a spokesman for Mr Cowen said: "The Taoiseach and the Government cannot be deflected by opinion polls. The poll in the Irish Times was disappointing, but the Taoiseach is more interested in practical solutions to our problems than courting popularity.
"The Government isn't naive, they don't expect to be popular for the measures they are taking. But we all know we must take them. This Government is united and committed to working for recovery."
Mr Kenny, meanwhile, is this weekend acutely aware that his leadership faces its most serious threat since he was elected to the position in 2002. This weekend his loyal ally, Fine Gael environment spokesman Phil Hogan, was busy making contact with TDs to shore up support for the embattled leader.
But while Mr Kenny still has significant support, particularly among older, rural TDs, it is believed that he has lost the crucial support of a majority of his frontbench, particularly, though not exclusively, among younger TDs.
A frontbench TD said: "I would say Enda has lost the support of 80 per cent, maybe 90 per cent of his frontbench."
Should Mr Bruton make his move, therefore, it is expected that a majority of the frontbench would support the finance spokesman, thereby making it virtually impossible for Mr Kenny to continue as leader.
It is as yet uncertain that Mr Bruton is willing to strike, even though he appeared to equivocate on the question of his support for the leadership of Mr Kenny when questioned on the issue on the RTE current affairs programme Prime Time last week.
Several senior figures in Fine Gael took Mr Bruton's pointed refusal to express confidence in Mr Kenny as a signal that a heave may be on. However, since then, Mr Kenny has gone to ground. He is understood to be consulting in confidence with trusted friends and advisers.
One frontbench TD said yesterday: "I'd go with Richard, but do you know what, I don't think Richard has the balls to go for it. If he doesn't, there is no one else around who will, or could."
Mr Kenny's leadership was seriously undermined on the publication of an Ipsos MRBI opinion poll in the Irish Times on Friday which showed his personal popularity has also fallen to 24 per cent, down seven points.
The damage was further consolidated yesterday in a follow-up poll which found that two-fifths of voters did not want either Mr Cowen or Mr Kenny as Taoiseach: a total of 30 per cent wanted Mr Kenny as leader and 21 per cent favoured Mr Cowen.
It is ironic, to say the least, that the focus of attention has shifted from the troubles of Mr Cowen, Fianna Fail and the Government to the leadership of Fine Gael by Mr Kenny.
However, the fact is that Mr Kenny's leadership of the party has been under question for several months, at least since the resignation from Fine Gael of George Lee.
In recent polls, Fine Gael, and the popularity of Mr Kenny, has started to slip to the point that support for the party is broadly where it was at the election in 2007.
- JODY CORCORAN
Originally published in
