FF facing wipeout in Budget backlash
Gilmore now more popular than Cowen and Kenny combined
A mere seven weeks before the local and European elections, a Sunday Inde-pendent/Quantum Research telephone poll taken last Friday shows a dramatic fall in support for the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, and for Fianna Fail.
In the aftermath of the most severe Budget in memory, and before the impact of increased income and health levies next month, the poll finds that Fianna Fail would now receive only 23 per cent of first preference votes, down five points since January, while satisfaction with Mr Cowen (20 per cent) is down a significant 15 points.
As Fianna Fail candidates prepare to canvass an angry electorate, the nationwide poll of 500 people also found a massive 72 per cent less satisfied, since the Budget, that the Government has a workable plan to lead the country out of recession, with just 28 per cent more satisfied.
The findings will come as a further blow to the Government which had hoped that the budgetary measures announced this month would go some way towards convincing the public that it was on the correct path to steer the country out of economic crisis. It is now virtually certain that Fianna Fail will suffer huge losses on local authorities around the country and will probably also lose a number of seats in the European parliament, which it would regard as disastrous.
Mr Cowen seems to have almost resigned himself to a poor election result. He told a meeting of Fianna Fail election candidates in Cork on Friday night: "I'm putting the next generation ahead of the next general election."
Were Fianna Fail to suffer significant losses on June 5, however, the prospect of a breakdown in discipline within the Fianna Fail parliamentary party will increase, heaping pressure on the Taoiseach to maintain stability within government in advance of another difficult Budget before the end of the year.
Already, a majority of senior Fianna Fail TDs are refusing to give up a bonus payment for long service despite the Taoiseach's clear wish that they do so. In Cork, Mr Cowen said: "I don't see any reason why the stability of this government will in any way be affected by the local elections."
The poll found that support for Fine Gael (26 per cent) was down a point, while the Labour Party (18 per cent), unchanged, appears to have peaked. However, both parties now appear odds-on to form the next Government.
The Greens (three per cent) have gained a point, indicating that Fianna Fail is bearing the brunt of the public's anger at a Budget which included large increases in income and health levies.
However, it is Sinn Fein (five per cent), up three points, which has recorded the largest increase in support, while support for Independents (four per cent) is down a point.
The popularity of Labour leader Eamon Gilmore shows no signs of abating. Satisfaction with Mr Gilmore (65 per cent) is up seven points since January. He is now more popular than Mr cowen and Mr Kenny combined. Satisfaction with the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny (33 per cent) is down two points.
While his opponents in Fine Gael will use his further fall in satisfaction as an indication that Mr Kenny is not the man to lead the party, Mr Kenny will himself be quietly heartened by another finding within the poll.
His dissatisfaction rating (56 per cent) has fallen by four points; 11 per cent (up six points) now say they do not know whether or not they are satisfied with him. This finding may indicate the public is at the beginning of a process of re-assessment of Mr Kenny as a possible Taoiseach.
Satisfaction with the Green Party leader John Gormley (38 per cent) is down just one point, showing yet again that the minority coalition party is withstanding the public's anger with the Government.
The only good news for the Government is that support for the Lisbon Treaty remains steady: 54 per cent say they will vote Yes, 24 per cent say they will vote No while 22 per cent do not know how they will vote.
- JODY CORCORAN
