FF faces meltdown at polls
Taoiseach courting election disaster as party support dives
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Friday February 27 2009
FIANNA Fail faces another hiding in the local elections unless Taoiseach Brian Cowen can kick-start a dramatic fightback this weekend.
The Irish Independent/Millward Brown IMS opinion poll shows support for Fianna Fail has now plummeted to just 25pc -- down a massive 17pc from the last general election.
The party's worst-ever electoral result came in the 2004 local elections, where it recorded just 32pc of the poll and lost 80 council seats.
However, the local ranks of the party are likely to be depleted even further unless there is a dramatic turnaround over the coming months.
According to the poll, Fianna Fail are no longer the biggest party in the country.
And with Eamon Gilmore's Labour hot on their heels with 22pc of the vote, they could be relegated to third unless Mr Cowen can stem the rising tide of public dissatisfaction with the Government.
This doomsday scenario will loom large over Mr Cowen's disgruntled backbench TDs as he prepares to address them at his first ard fheis as party leader tomorrow night.
According to the poll, Fianna Fail would lose anything up to 30 Dail seats if an election was called today. The findings are stark: just over one-in-five voters think their leader is doing a good job; one-in-10 are satisfied with the Government.
Mr Cowen can take some comfort in the fact he retains the support of core Fianna Fail voters. But it is clear he has a long way to go to convince a highly sceptical and fearful electorate that he is the man to lead the country out of its worst ever financial and economic crisis.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the capital, where the party is backed by just 18pc of the electorate -- behind both Fine Gael and Labour.
Loyalty to the Fianna Fail brand also appears to have evaporated, with just 56pc of people who voted for Fianna Fail the last time around saying they would do so now.
The plight of the 'Breakfast Roll Man' -- the group of newly prosperous Celtic Tiger cubs credited with sealing the last election for Fianna Fail -- appears to have mirrored the party's recent misfortunes. The most marked drop in support has been among young professionals in the 25-34 and 35-49 age categories, who are abandoning the party in their droves.
Scores
Aside from Mr Cowen's own personal satisfaction rating being down at 21pc, he also scores poorly on economic competence where he is ranked below Mr Gilmore -- but above Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny.
And when it come to the main party leader who people trust least on the economy, Mr Cowen tops the poll.
All eyes will be on the Taoiseach when he takes to the podium in the Citywest Hotel to deliver the most important speech of his career so far tomorrow night. Security has been beefed up to contain a series of protests.
Despite the ratings wipeout, he can expect the Soldiers of Destiny to rally around their leader in their hour of need.
But he will have to conjure the greatest political turnaround in decades to convince a disenchanted public that he is the man to lead them out of the country's darkest hour.
- Shane Doran and Fionnan Sheahan
