FF may not be able to recover
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The slump in support suffered by Fianna Fail in the local and European elections was far worse than any in history and could cause permanent damage to the party's position.
Historically, Fianna Fail, when in power, have suffered a mid-term drop in support of about 10 per cent from what they received at the previous general election. however, their support is down massively compared to where it was when Bertie Ahern won his historical third term in 2007. Mid-term votes, in the form of the local and European elections, are the usual manner in which anger toward government is expressed.
For example, in 2002 Fianna Fail took 41 per cent of the vote and in the 2004 they took 29 per cent in the European vote, a gap of 12 per cent. In 2007, they received 41.6 per cent of the vote and, according to our poll, they are now on just 23 per cent, a gap of 18 per cent.
Fine Gael were the main beneficiaries of the drop in support, taking 45 per cent of the floating FF vote, with the remainder split among left-wing opposition parties and independents.
This weekend represents FF's worst-ever European election and local election result.
Roger Jupp of Lansdowne Market Research said if Fianna Fail were to contest a general election they would suffer irreversible damage. He said they must delay calling a general election if they are to withstand annihilation.
- DANIEL McCONNELL Chief Reporter
