Dole queues shorten but young men still hardest hit
Thursday November 05 2009
YOUNG workers continue to bear the brunt of the economic downturn with three out of 10 men in their early 20s currently on the dole.
Many have now opted to stay on in education with a significant fall in labour force participation rates for those aged between 15 and 24.
The shock figures were revealed by the state training authority FAS as the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 in October -- the first monthly fall in Live Register numbers in more than two years.
Reacting to the latest figures, Ulster Bank said that based on its own estimates, the numbers claiming unemployment benefits by the end of the year was likely to be 100,000 fewer than the figure forecast by economists earlier this year.
"One welcome implication of this development is that it will make the budget arithmetic somewhat less difficult for the Minister for Finance in his December Budget -- 100,000 fewer workers on the Live Register for a full year would result in savings for the Exchequer of over €1bn," a bank official said.
Employers' group IBEC said that while the Live Register fall was welcome, it was too early to say that the economy had turned a corner.
However, ISME, which represents small and medium-sized firms, claimed the figures masked the true extent of unemployment and that "dreadful" redundancy figures of more than 67,000 in the year to date provided a truer reflection of the scale of the crisis.
Recruiting agency Grafton Recruitment said it had witnessed a 29pc increase in the number of permanent jobs that came on the market in the last six months.
These included accountancy, banking and sales and marketing, which had seen a growth in bookings of 50pc, according to its managing director, Cathy McCorry.
However, Fine Gael warned that Ireland faced the grim prospect of the scourge of emigration and the prospect of a lost generation.
Its enterprise spokesman Leo Varadkar said the Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures were no cause for celebration and said a government response to "this emerging social crisis" was needed.
Outlook
Latest Live Register figures from the CSO show a standard unemployment rate of 12.5pc in October with 422,500 people signing on -- a fall of 3,000 on September and the first monthly drop since March 2007.
In the year to October, there were also signs of a slowing down of people signing on with an unadjusted increase of 161,727 -- up almost 65pc.
This compares with an unadjusted increase of 179,637 (74.8pc) in the year to September.
In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the register was 69,360 -- more than half of them male.
The figures were released as FAS claimed there were signs that the underlying rate of job losses had slowed significantly with job vacancies up by a fifth.
However, despite some encouraging signs in recent months, the employment outlook for 2010 "remains quite poor", as the economy is expected to contract again next year.
In its latest quarterly commentary, the authority revealed that younger workers, particularly men aged under 24, have been the worst affected by the downturn, with three out of 10 men in their early 20s currently out of work and a 60pc increase in the number of graduates seeking employment or further training.
"The unemployment outlook will partly depend on the extent to which employers decide to switch their employees from full-time to part-time employment in an effort to avoid lay-offs," it said.
While low-skilled employees have accounted for the majority of the job losses to date, the number of professionals looking for work or training has soared by 84pc.
- Fergus Black
Irish Independent
