Thursday, March 18 2010

National News

Cowen poll wipeout

Support for Taoiseach and FF collapses in Budget backlash


By Fionnan Sheahan Political Editor

Friday November 14 2008

The unprecedented Budget backlash against Brian Cowen and his Government was confirmed last night with record low poll figures for the Taoiseach and Fianna Fail.

Mr Cowen's party and personal popularity as its leader plummeted to new depths as Fine Gael overtook Fianna Fail to become the best supported party in the country.

The survey recorded the lowest ever ratings for Fianna Fail or a Fianna Fail leader since polling began.

The devastating reversal in the party's fortunes sees Fianna Fail's support now standing at an astonishing 27pc, after crashing by 15 points.

Fine Gael is the main beneficiary, with a whopping 11pc rise to 34pc.

Worryingly for Mr Cowen, the figures mirror a poll carried out by a separate company in the immediate aftermath of the Budget, when the protests about the over-70s medical cards were at their height.

The figures in this poll suggest the anger at the Government's decisions on the medical cards, social welfare payments and the income levy has not abated -- despite three U-turns.

Similar controversy continues to simmer over the cuts to school funding and the move to scrap a cervical cancer vaccine for young girls.

If these poll results were repeated in a general election, Fianna Fail would be drummed out of office, losing up to 20 seats; while Fine Gael would romp home, making gains of up to 20 TDs.

It is only the second time in the history of polling that Fine Gael has been ahead of Fianna Fail. The first happened 26 years ago, but Fine Gael was only one point ahead on that occasion in 1982.

The poll, by TNS/mrbi for the Irish Times, the first of its kind since the Lisbon Treaty rejection in June, shows how the political climate has changed completely in the past six months.

And there is further bad news for Mr Cowen, with the Government's satisfaction rating dropping by a staggering 28 points to just 18pc -- meaning less than one in five of those polled are happy with the Government's performance.

Compounding Mr Cowen's headaches, the poll also shows his personal satisfaction rating has dropped by 21pc and now stands at just 26pc, making him the least popular party leader in the country.

The results will raise doubts over Mr Cowen's authority and his ability to lead his party and government through this challenging economic climate. In the period since the last poll, Mr Cowen has had a disastrous time, losing the Lisbon Treaty, watching the economy go into freefall and losing three TDs on the back of a calamitous Budget.

Fine Gael's celebrations will be tempered, though, by their party leader Enda Kenny again failing to make ground as he actually dropped two points to 33pc.

Ironically, Mr Kenny has failed to make an impact as his party has soared, which will again raise some question marks about his leadership. But these will be overshadowed by Fine Gael's overall big gains in support.

In contrast to Fine Gael, Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore sees his poll rating rise by three points to 38pc, seeing him emerge as the most popular party leader in the country. Yet his party has dropped by 1pc to 14pc and has not gained from the Government's misfortune.

The Green Party is down by 1pc to 4pc, but party leader John Gormley has seen his popularity also drop substantially by 12 points to 28pc.

Independents

Sinn Fein's support stays the same at 8pc, yet party president Gerry Adams also went down by 12 points to 33pc.

Independents also gained significantly from the Fianna Fail drop, rising by 7pc to 13pc. But this figure also includes the rating for the PDs.

Last night, Fine Gael were happy but not getting carried away with the results.

"Fine Gael and Enda Kenny have proposed an alternative to the Budget and the management of government by Fianna Fail over the last number of months.

"The public are clearly warming to that proposition and Fine Gael will continue to work with the public in planning a better alternative to the current government," a spokesman said.

The Labour Party was also pleased with the results and pointed towards the pattern now emerging. "One poll can be put down as a rogue poll, but two establishes a pattern. It confirms the Fianna Fail support. We are happy with our showing as it represents a significant upturn," a spokesman said.

Nobody from the Government, Fianna Fail or the Green Party commented on the polls. Fianna Fail sources said it was not surprising the party was down, given the emotive language during the week over the cervical cancer debate, and the results were in line with a previous poll.

- Fionnan Sheahan Political Editor

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