Cowen on the brink of humiliating Euro defeat
Poll shows FF may fail to return MEP in key Dublin constituency
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TAOISEACH Brian Cowen is in danger of suffering a humiliating defeat in the European elections, a new poll reveals.
For the first time in its history, his party faces the prospect of failing to return an MEP in a European constituency.
The loss of a third of the Fianna Fail votes in Dublin means Mr Cowen faces tough odds to hold on to the party's European Parliament seat in the capital.
The gloomy prospect comes on top of a looming haemorrhage of seats in the local elections. The new opinion poll figures on the European elections come as an Irish Independent investigation reveals that most of the existing MEPs are refusing to reveal the exact amount of their lucrative expenses.
Mr Cowen also lost out on any lingering hopes of a coalition with Labour after the next election as its leader Eamon Gilmore yesterday ruled out any pact.
Mr Cowen insisted that he intends to stay in power for the next three years regardless of the outcome on June 5.
Mr Gilmore is now in prime position to treble his number of MEPs as he moves in for the kill in the 'Super Friday' election battle.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny will lose a seat in Europe, based on the present figures, due largely to poor vote management by his party.
And Libertas leader Declan Ganley is a long way off getting elected as he struggles to even get into the shake-up for a seat. Independent MEP Marian Harkin is holding steady on twice Mr Ganley's vote.
Fianna Fail MEP Eoin Ryan is in deep trouble as he fights to hold on to his seat in Dublin, where his party's vote is being decimated on every level.
He is now locked in a fight to the death with Sinn Fein MEP Mary Lou McDonald to decide who hangs on as the capital loses a seat.
Mr Ryan will be dependent on transfers from his running mate, Eibhlin Byrne, but Ms McDonald can also count on second preferences from a range of left-wing and No to Lisbon candidates.
This battle between Mr Ryan and Ms McDonald will now decide if the European elections are a success or a failure for Mr Cowen.
Although the party vote is down elsewhere, he will still retain the three other seats as Brian Crowley in Ireland South, Liam Aylward in Ireland East and Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher in Ireland North West are odds- on to be elected.
Fine Gael MEP Mairead McGuinness is set to become the biggest vote getter in the country. But her overwhelming success will result in Fine Gael losing a seat, as she is too far ahead of her running mate, John Paul Phelan.
The party's vote is actually increasing on the result of five years ago, but more than three- quarters of the Fine Gael vote is going to the sitting MEP.
Fine Gael's Jim Higgins will be elected in Ireland North West and former GAA President Sean Kelly will replace sitting MEP Colm Burke in Ireland South.
The success story of the European elections could be the Labour Party as Neasa Childers will take a seat in Ireland East, based on these figures in the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.
Labour's Alan Kelly in Ireland South is marginally ahead in a three-way battle with Independent MEP Kathy Sinnott and Sinn Fein's Toireasa Ferris for the final seat.
Sinn Fein will also be happy with its performance as Ms McDonald is ahead in the race for Brussels.
The Green Party is not at the races at all as Deirdre de Burca is even trailing her former party colleague, Independent Patricia McKenna, in Dublin.
- Fionnan Sheahan and Michael Brennan
