Civil unrest 'may force June poll'
Ex-FF adviser predicts fury over harsh budget
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The country is facing the prospect of a general election on June 5 in the wake of three months of political turmoil and possible civil unrest following the emergency budget, according to former Fianna Fail strategist Noel Whelan.
The veteran political analyst believes the current administration could collapse as a result of the pressures that will follow what is expected to be the harshest budget in living memory.
Whelan is deeply pessimistic about the Government's ability to push through reforms desperately needed to fill a €4.5bn hole.
His prediction of a local, European and general election all on the same day -- June 5 -- is based on his fear that a tough budget will spark deep public anger and create instability among Government backbenchers, the Greens and supporting Independent deputies.
"I think the next 12 weeks are going to be some of the most tense weeks in Irish politics, with a budget scheduled at the beginning, April 7, Easter following after that. I think there is a real possibility we will have a general election on the June 5, actually, because of, I think, the intensity of the demands that are going to be on the Government and the political system generally...
"We may get to a stage where because the Government does not have a majority to get that budget passed or because of the level of civil unrest some of the measures in the budget give rise to, that the clearest way to clean the decks and get a hold of both the financial and other crisis may be a general election," he told TV3's The Political Party.
"Remember this Government's majority is built on three legs -- firstly, it's going to have to make all of its backbenchers stay in line, and that's going to be very difficult when you now consider things like freezing social welfare payments, if not cutting social welfare payments or abolishing the Christmas double week bonus.
"You're going to have to consider an addition to the additional income taxes that were imposed last October.
"Certainly there will be increases in both the small and top rate -- if not a dramatic increase in the income levy itself. That's going to pressurise the backbenchers; it's going to pressurise a couple of the independents that are left supporting the Government; and it's going to create difficulties for the Greens," he said.
- JEROME REILLY
