Bitter battle as FF's defeated seek Bertie's nod for Seanad
Callely's dismal showing - in which he secured a mere 13 votes - means he is now battling it out with nine other FF candidates to secure a Taoiseach's nomination to the Seanad.
But sources close to the Taoiseach believe Callely's chances may be stymied by a number of factors.
Leaving aside the facts that Callely's protracted resignation saga in 2005 attracted the ire of Bertie, and reduced Brian Cowen's first budget to the status of a political sideshow, a series of constituency issues mean Callely may be edged out of the Taoiseach's list of nominees.
Theoretically, Bertie has 11 nominations to the Seanad. However, four of these have been allocated to the Greens and the PDs - and if Ahern continues the pattern of appointing one "trophy" candidate, the Taoiseach will have up to a dozen candidates for just six in-house vacancies.
The problem for Callely is that, when it comes to the Northside constituencies, there will be serious competition for places.
In Dublin North East, it is expected the Taoiseach will console Martin Brady for his shock Dail defeat by nominating him to the Seanad. Brady is highly regarded within the party and is politically close to Brian Cowen.
However, sources within Leinster House believe that, when it comes to Dublin North Central, Ahern is giving serious consideration to the possibility of appointing Deirdre Heney, the 2002 Fianna Fail candidate rather than Callely.
Such a decision would make it very difficult for Callely to return to the Dail.
Heney, who is closely associated with Noel Ahern, is a prolific vote-getter. She is also non-controversial, hardworking and, importantly, female.
Another defeated Seanad candidate who is being hotly tipped for a place is Fianna Fail Dublin South candidate Maria Corrigan. She is close to Bertie's long-term political ally Joe Burke, and is seen as a viable long-term replacement for Seamus Brennan.
Another battle centres on the competing ambitions of John Ellis and veteran FF Senator Paschal Mooney.
The latter's shock defeat means that Leitrim is now the only county without a single Oireachtas representative. However, though Mooney is the bookies' favourite to remedy that deficit, it is believed that the former Sligo-Leitrim TD John Ellis would be prepared to run again.
Others who are believed to be in the frame for the best sinecure in Irish politics include Martin Crowe of Galway West, Ollie Wilkinson in Waterford, Luke Morality of Dublin Mid-West, Kerry's Tom Fleming (who was narrowly defeated by Jackie Healy-Rae), and Joe Callanan in Galway East.
Some FF figures have also suggested that Cyprian Brady's elevation to the Dail and Ahern's own incipient departure from politics means the Taoiseach may move to heal the political rifts in his own constituency and appoint his "shafted" former running mate Mary Fitzpatrick to the Seanad.
However, such a decision may also be influenced by the fact it is unlikely that Cyprian Brady will have enough of a surplus to bring a running mate in.
Though it is always difficult to read Bertie Ahern's mind, some things are clear.
The Taoiseach has six Seanad jobs.
There are, however, at least nine candidates.
Someone is going to be very unhappy next week.
- JOHN DRENNAN
