JODY CORCORAN

FIANNA FAIL has dramatically halted the momentum which seemed to be with the alternative Rainbow coalition, according to a Sunday Independent/Millard Brown IMS opinion poll.

In less than a week, support for Fianna Fail has risen by two points to 37 per cent, and Fine Gael (25 per cent) and Labour (12 per cent) have each dropped a point.

The poll was carried out nationwide on Monday and Tuesday last week, after the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, had issued a detailed statement in relation to his personal finances.

A comparable poll was taken on May 9 and 10 last.

This week Fianna Fail will go on the offensive, stressing the "big gamble with their jobs and homes on this novice", that Enda Kenny constitutes for voters, party sources said yesterday.

Adjusted figures show Fianna Fail (37 per cent) up two points; Fine Gael (25 per cent) down one point; Labour (12 per cent) down one point; PDs (3 per cent) unchanged; the Greens (5 per cent) unchanged; Sinn Fein (9 per cent) down one point and Independents (9 per cent) up one point.

All the party leaders have improved their satisfaction rating, except PD leader Michael McDowell (33 per cent), down two points, a reflection of his erratic behaviour after recent disclosures about Mr Ahern's financial affairs.

While Fianna Fail is five points down on its May 2002 General Election performance, it will be pleased that the poll shows the party moving in the right direction, as the campaign enters its most critical phase.

But support for Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens, as our opinion poll shows, remains relatively solid, and the Rainbow Coalition must still, at this stage, be regarded as slight favourites to win.

However, the Rainbow alternative can by no means be confident of achieving power, and will certainly not be complacent entering the final week of the campaign.

Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats will be pleased that satisfaction with the Government has risen, by two points, to 49 per cent.

The satisfaction increase is widespread, but, interestingly, is specifically not reflected among young women in Leinster, loosely identified as young mothers living in the commuter belt areas of greater Dublin.

Because the election is proving to be so tight, the significant decrease in satisfaction among this grouping may now determine the outcome of the election.

Some may try to link their dissatisfaction to the recently renewed controversy surrounding the Taoiseach's personal life, it is more readily explained by unhappiness with general quality-of-life issues, such as childcare, healthcare and transport.

Excluding Dublin, the Government's satisfaction rating in Leinster (45 per cent) has dropped a significant four points; its satisfaction among women (48 per cent) is down two points, and among the 25-34 age group (49 per cent) is down three points.

Since data for the opinion poll was gathered, Mr Ahern - most pundits believe - narrowly won a head-to-head debate with Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny.

Fianna Fail will, therefore, hope that its determined fightback, as indicated in our poll, continues - and, indeed, will be further boosted by Mr Ahern's television performance - until Election Day on Thursday.

A realistic prospect now exists that Fianna Fail and the PDs may yet form the next Government, as it did in 1997, with the support of a number of Independent TDs.

To do so, however, they will have to rely on the support of a larger number of Independents than they did almost 10 years ago, when they had the backing of three such TDs from the so-called Fianna Fail gene poll.

The election outcome, therefore, really is on a knife-edge and the result is likely to be the closest in over 20 years, with each party certain to vigorously campaign for every possible vote until the final moment.

Indeed, what may prove more interesting than the election outcome itself, will be negotiations to form a Government afterwards.

A significant majority (55 per cent), down three points since April, still do not believe the Labour leader Pat Rabbitte when he says he has no intention of bringing his party into coalition with Fianna Fail. Only 30 per cent (up eight points) believe him.

Satisfaction with the party leaders has shown increases across the board, except for Mr McDowell.

Notwithstanding publicity concerning his financial affairs, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern (54 per cent) has jumped two points, Enda Kenny (46 per cent) is up one point, Pat Rabbitte (51 per cent) up two points, Michael McDowell (33 per cent) down two points, Trevor Sargent (44 per cent) up two points and Gerry Adams (59 per cent) is up one point.

Millard Brown/IMS adjust findings according to whom those polled say they gave their first preference vote in the last election in May 2002.

Where there are too many or too few voters for a relevant party, each voter group is weighted to correct for this. These weightings are then applied to voting intentions.

The unadjusted figures show Fianna Fail (38 per cent), Fine Gael (21 per cent), Labour (10 per cent), the PDs (2 per cent), the Greens (3 per cent), Sinn Fein (9 per cent), Independents (6 per cent), Don't Know (11 per cent).

The adjusted figures show that Fianna Fail is still a significant 5 per cent down on the last General Election.