80,000 'will lose jobs in 2009'
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UNEMPLOYMENT could go above 8pc by the end of next year, with further job losses expected in 2010 if there is no significant upturn in the world economy, a report from FAS predicts.
The tighter jobs market will see more Irish people seeking work abroad, with a net emigration of 27,000 people anticipated next year, according to the latest quarterly commentary from the State training agency.
Around 80,000 jobs will be lost next year if the anticipated drop of 3.8pc in the annual average employment rate materialises.
The Irish economic recession has coincided with a dramatic reversal in the fortunes of the labour market, which is expected to "worsen" in the short-term, according to FAS.
However, FAS warned the current economic turmoil has ensured their forecasts are more "tentative than usual".
"Given the current level of economic uncertainty, employment forecasts beyond 2009 would involve heroic assumptions that have no certainty of materialising," FAS senior economist Brian McCormick said.
"Nevertheless, in the absence of a significant upturn in the world economy, a further contraction in labour demand is, at this early stage, the most likely scenario for 2010."
The rapid rise in the numbers on the Live Register -- up 42pc since the end of 2007 -- has been highlighted as a telling sign of the weakening of the labour market.
The drop off in the work market has led to a 41pc fall in the number of nationals from the 12 countries that joined the European Union over the past few years coming here. Although inward migration has slowed, 61,000 PPS numbers were issued to migrants from those 12 states by the end of September.
The counties in the border region are believed to have been worst hit, with redundancies up by 84pc so far this year.
The number of vacancies notified to FAS in the year to date is down 24pc on last year, with a 50pc fall off in transport work, just over 40pc in IT and construction and retail workers down 26pc.
The number of new apprentices entering the workforce was down 39pc, or 2,000, in the first nine months.
In 2009, the construction sector is expected to bear the brunt of the job losses, dropping by 19pc, with redundancies also expected in the commercial sector as demand for office and retail property dries up.
The report further undermines the recent Budget, with predictions of far higher unemployment levels than the Government's own estimates, Fine Gael's Leo Varadkar said.
"Further massive lay-offs in the construction sector, and the higher than predicted unemployment rate next year, will see the Government's revenue sources fall even lower than anticipated," the TD said.
- Louise Hogan
