US market not quite dead and buried
Friday October 02 2009
RECENT events would entitle anyone to be be a sceptic about the merits or otherwise of buying abroad. Thousands of Irish buyers indeed have the stripes to prove that the streets far away are not always paved with gold.
According to the Biblical account, Jesus said: "Blessed are they that have not seen, and yet have believed". This axiom, unfortunately, does not hold for property purchase -- many buyers who bought abroad on a whim or a promise without even leaving their couch are sorely regretting it today.
So a whistlestop visit to Boston and surrounding environs last week was just the job to check out where the US property market is really at. A chance for this Doubting Thomas to actually touch the wounds and see for himself . . .
The results, I'm pleased to report, were both encouraging and revealing. My first port of call was Rochester in western New York state.
Until now I have to admit that the only Rochester I knew was comedian Jack Benny's manservant. But the eponymous city -- about 70 miles east of Niagra Falls on the southern shore of Lake Ontario -- is the third largest industrial/commercial centre next to the Big Apple and Buffalo.
There are over 1,000 manufacturers in its immediate area, notably worldwide industry leaders Eastman Kodak, Xerox and Bausch & Lamb. Plus no less than 17 colleges/universities. As to property, the mood in this verdant and hard-working community just now is decidedly positive.
You see, the first thing to bear in mind about the great US Property Crash is that its reverberations have by no means been uniform. The US is, after all, a big place and contrasts there are great. Yes -- foreclosures surged a massive 81pc to a record 3 million from 2007 to 2008. And some areas have been badly mauled. Nevada, for example, saw a huge 7.3pc rise in home repossessions; Arizona 4.5pc; and California 4pc.
But foreclosures rose a much more moderate 1.6pc in the Boston area and the figure for New York state was just 0.6pc.
To put this into context, mortgage non-payments of 90 days or more in Ireland reached 2.3pc in the second three months of this year, up from 1pc in the same period in 2008.
In Northeast USA, property prices never saw the exponential price increases experienced in areas like Las Vegas or Hollywood. The impact of the current slump on property prices has thus been correspondingly less dramatic there.
And now -- right on cue, 18 months into the current recession -- reports of "green shoots" throughout the US housing market are emerging. There has thus been something of a rebound in the Rochester property market among others in recent months.
And real estate experts like second generation Irishman Sean O'Brien feel that things will be on the up from here on.
An hour's airline hop away, the soundings from Boston were likewise upbeat. According to the Boston Globe, June home prices were a strong 2.6pc above the previous month and the number of single-family homes that sold statewide in July was a whopping 12pc higher than a year ago. Housing industry specialist Karl E Case, a professor of economics at Wellesley College, asserts that the Boston housing market is "bottoming out".
"While these data come from different sources, and measure different components of the real estate market, they point to a market that is heading upward," the Globe reported.
"For months, industry representatives and specialists have wistfully pointed to a combination of ideal factors that they argued should have long ago sparked a recovery in housing sales: record low mortgage rates, steep price declines and a government tax credit for first-time buyers.
"But such predictions did not account for the human factor. Buyers were afraid to commit if the slump was going to continue and make the home they bought today worth less tomorrow.
Now, though, with federal officials declaring that the economy itself has hit bottom and is showing signs of life, and consumer confidence rising slightly, buyers apparently feel there is less risk in committing to a home purchase."
And the overall picture? Well, the latest available monthly index reveals that US residential property prices overall dipped slightly in July (-0.5pc) after four months of gains.
So, before one gets too carried away with "green shoot" syndrome, there still remains a real possibility that US prices may well "yo-yo" up and down for some time yet as the market moves towards stability.
So, before taking the leap, add the two Ds -- discretion and due diligence -- to the three Ls -- location, location, location -- before taking the plunge.
- Con Power
Irish Independent



