Schools facing new crisis as pupil numbers soar to 650,000
350 new classes needed a year
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PRIMARY school enrolments are set to rocket by a third over the next 15 years, putting huge and previously unforeseen strain on education finances, confidential new projections show.
The increase, from 480,000 to 650,000, was described last night as "staggering" in size and in terms of the huge infrastructural challenge it posed.
New figures prepared by the Department of Education reveal that 350 new classrooms will be needed annually to cope with extra pupils numbers. That equates to around 20 schools being built every single year for the foreseeable future, at a cost of about €10m per school.
The department will also face a spiralling wages bill, with an extra 8,000 teachers required at a cost of €500m per year.
The official line was that primary enrolments would go up 100,000, but that now looks like a major underestimate.
The revelation comes on the day that Education Minister Batt O'Keeffe is to face angry teachers at union conferences in Kerry and Donegal.
President of InTO Declan Kelleher last night told colleagues that classes were already overcrowded, and this would be made worse due to a cost-saving decision to change the formula for allocating staff from September.
Overcrowded
"You simply cannot implement a child-centred, highly individualised and group-focused curriculum where you have grossly overcrowded classrooms," he said.
Now a new school-building challenge looms, after education organisations were given a new and extremely detailed analysis of projected pupil numbers.
It was prepared using a sophisticated Geographical Information System, and combines data from different sources, including government departments and the Central Statistics Office.
The sudden explosion in pupil numbers is due to the rapidly rising birth rate. The rate had slumped to 48,255 in 1994, but two years ago it had climbed back to 70,620 and is thought to be still rising.
Paul Rowe, chief executive of Educate Together, said the scale of the challenge was "staggering". He criticised poor planning strategies which had led to oversized schools being shoehorned into sites originally allocated for schools half that size.
And John Carr, general secretary of INTO, said that urgent action was needed to avert a crisis.
"If this number of new classrooms have to be provided, then the department will have to up its game and streamline procedures," said Mr Carr. "Timeframes for the delivery of new schools will have to be shortened."
The new projections were compiled by the department's Forward Planning Section.
The biggest demand for primary school places in the Dublin region will be in the Lucan area, which will need up to 70 new classrooms by 2015. On a national scale that demand is only outstripped in Drogheda, which could need up to 90 new classrooms during that time.
There is a raft of areas in Greater Dublin that will need between 41 and 64 new classrooms each during the same timeframe.
Lucan Fine Gael candidate William Lavelle said the department would need to take urgent action to plan for rapidly expanding areas such as these.
"Instead of that, the department is cutting back on spending," said Mr Lavelle.
However, a spokesperson for the minister last night insisted that the provision of school places was a top priority.
"We are providing €610m for permanent school places this year and have announced 78 projects for 40,000 places since last September," he said.
And he insisted that funding would be available to cope with demand going forward, despite the lean years of public spending ahead.
Analysis: Page 29
- John Walshe Education Editor
