Numbers of LCVs to grow rapidly over next three years
I see numbers of LCV registrations growing rapidly over the next two or three years, writes Padraic Deane.
My reasons for this are threefold. First and foremost, there are thousands of vans and LCVs still in need of replacement.
The continuing recovery will give owners the confidence to buy new vans and light commercial vehicles.
The second reason is the much improved availability of low-cost finance in all its guises. In addition to traditional leasing, hire purchase, expect PCPs to invade the van world.
The third reason is not so obvious and will be disputed by many as not being as likely as I believe it is.
I predict the decline in the traditional 7.5-tonne commercial vehicles. Operators will down-size to 3.5-tonne LCV models instead. I believe this will be driven by purchase and operating costs in the first place but also due to driving licence changes, driver Certificate's of Professional Competence requirements, tachograph, operator's licence requirements, and increased kerb weight of many Euro 6 models.
Add to that the lack of availability of good HCV drivers as opposed to van drivers, the greater manoeuvrability of vans in urban areas in particular, no access weight restrictions, less intrusive physical presence, and lower perceived environmental impact, you get a lot of reasons for seeing many more large vans and less smaller trucks in the future.