End of the road for 130,000 older cars as 150,000 new ones start life
Unique survey forecasts a 12pc increase in the number of older cars that will be 'retired' this year
We will say goodbye to around 130,000 old cars from our roads this year - but we will greet 150,000 new ones, a major new survey reveals today.
According to research, analysis and projections by vehicle history and data experts Cartell.ie there will be a 12pc increase in cars reaching the end of their useful purpose on the road in 2016.
They will disappear off our radar for all intents and purposes.
That means they will show no sales or purchase activity on systems such as Cartell's database for more than 24 months and there will be no record of tax or NCT.
A big number will be scrapped, written-off or exported.
The report's authors examined the natural rate of attrition involving the number of cars on the road.
They then concluded that more vehicles will be retired in 2016 because the years in which they were first registered were those that enjoyed big numbers of registrations in the good times.
They say, for example, that market patterns indicate 16.5pc (17,546) of all current privately registered vehicles from 2000 are expected to "leave the (car) fleet this year".
They discovered that they are still 106,339 cars from the 2,000 'live' in the fleet - many of which are now entering their 16th year on the go.
In its own way that says a lot about the longevity of cars over the
past decade and a half.
It will be remembered that 2,000 was the all-time-record-year for new-car sales.
It stands to reason, therefore, that a larger numbers of vehicles will finish their journeys this year because they were registered at time of high registrations.
Cartell.ie say they came up with roughly the same sort of percentages for cars that were registered in 1999 and 2001 as the accompanying table shows.
The authors say a number of factors contribute to the demise of thousands of cars. They include:
* End of anti-corrosion warranties
* The cars' low market value
* The high cost of parts and labour compared with the car's value.
John Byrne of Cartell.ie says: "If the industry is predicting new-car sales of 150,000 in 2016 based on existing levels of growth, demand, and natural market attrition, we would say that number could be even higher based on this research."
He added: "We expect thousands more cars will retire from the fleet this year compared to last year and this leaves an opportunity for significantly improved new car sales - as owners shuffle up the market into newer vehicles."
His comments follow the publication of official Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) figures which showed 124,945 new cars were registered last year.
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) were up 42pc (to 23,722). The SIMI's Alan Nolan is hopeful registrations will return to levels not seen since before 2008.