Lack of political enthusiasm means 'limpers and laggers' will be most likely to go for job
THE lack of enthusiasm for the new job of Dublin mayor means there aren't many runners and riders, rather limpers and laggers.
Here's how the parties are likely to fare in the election -- due to take place in the spring -- and who may run for them.
- FIANNA FAIL: The best anyone running for FF in the capital could hope for is a Kamikaze run -- you're not going to survive but you could take a few people out with you. Could be a way to chalk up brownie points with party bosses.
Possible candidates: Anyone who has a firm backside, to take the spanking inevitably handed out by angry Dubs.
- FINE GAEL: Enda Kenny's ongoing problems in the capital mean anyone running for the blueshirts would need coddle running through their veins. Yahooing yelps, last seen around Leinster House at the time of the FG heave, need not apply.
Possible candidates: Could come from the cappuccino wing of the party, such as Brian Hayes, who is interested but only if the position is given substantially more power. Also mentioned is the party's street fighter, Dublin MEP Gay Mitchell. Just keep Kenny off the posters.
- LABOUR: The way the polls are at the moment, Labour would easily win the mayoral election if it was held any time soon, so anyone who secured the party's nomination would have one foot in the door already.
Possible candidates: Dublin city councillor Dermot Lacey has always been gung-ho for a directly elected mayor, and has immense knowledge of local government.
But the name mentioned most often with the position is Ruairi Quinn, who hasn't ruled himself in or out.
A political heavyweight, Quinn would bring gravitas to the job but would have to choose between a likely position in the next cabinet or the mayor gig.
Some aspects of the mayor's job have the potential to become more powerful over time, and a significant figure like Quinn could make that happen.
- GREEN PARTY: A slim chance of winning. The electorate could punish/reward the party for making them troop to the polls to vote for the position.
Possible candidates: Even less of a chance of winning now that Paul Gogarty is set to run. His, eh, distinctive style of politics -- rolling on floors, f-bombs in the Dail, and twitter rants -- will make him an easy target for opponents.
FG's Phil Hogan has already provided a taster: "If the Green Party thinks Paul Gogarty is the answer, the question must not be too clever."
- ANother: Don't rule out an independent runner -- Paddy Power has Joe Duffy at 20/1. he already has the "woman from Clontarf" vote sewn up.